Cumulative Effects Analysis – A Guest Post by Courtney Schultz

Attached is a piece I wrote that came out of my dissertation research on how the Forest Service handles cumulative effects analysis, particularly when it involves resources that see effects over long temporal and broad geographic scales. This article came out in Bioscience this month and is a short piece that focuses especially on the limitations of how we do the analysis for wildlife species. My intention was to look at the requirement and at current practice and provide a critical assessment of where/how it falls short, where it works, and what are impediments to and opportunities for improvement. I’d be interested to hear what you all think. Having worked as a PMF (Presidential Management Fellow) for the last year, a question that looms large for me and that I would like to have addressed more is: What could practitioners (from district to regional offices) do to improve analysis with the resources available? I touch on this to some extent, but I’d like to keep exploring it. I look forward to hearing any of your thoughts and feedback.

Courtney Schultz is currently a Presidential Management Fellow with the U.S. Forest Service. She completed her Ph.D. at the University of Montana in the College of Forestry and Conservation and this fall will begin work as an assistant professor of forest and natural resource policy at Colorado State University.

More 21st Century Problems

Following up on last weekend’s post.. on 21st Century Problems. Here’s two from this weekend’s news.

Are campgrounds for the public or for making a profit? By Pete Zimowsky here.

And Illegal pot grows damaging forest land by Tiffany Revelle here.

Why are topics like climate change and ecological restoration more likely to garner funding than the fundamentals of providing campgrounds and keeping federal land safe for the public and not a trashbin for criminals?

Forest Role Reversal- Guest Post from Derek Weidensee

The much maligned, much despised, and much misunderstood Clearcut is being seen in a new light these days. The driving force behind the new image is wildfire and the Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) epidemic that has killed off millions of acres of lodgepole pine primarily in Montana and Colorado. The public never understood the ecology or the silviculture behind a clearcut and thus presumed it only represented the most efficient and therefore greedy method to extract timber. Well, that attitude is changing. Nothing explains the ecology behind a clearcut to the public better than a MPB epidemic or a wildfire. Suddenly they get why foresters did them.
Across millions of acres of MPB killed watersheds, the only “green islands” in a sea of red are the young trees of regenerated clearcuts We know the MPB doesn’t attack these young trees. If you’ll look at my previous “clearcuts don’t burn” posting on the sosf blog, you’ll also see that 80% of regenerated lodgepole clearcuts don’t burn in wildfires. The “green islands” in a sea of black is a striking contrast.
For Google Earth proof of the “green islands”in both settings, type in the following Latitude and Longitudes in the “fly to” box.

(Technical note from Sharon for Google Earth newbies: I think how this works is that you need to download Google Earth to your computer. Then when you click on the Google Earth icon, a screen will come up with a box that says “fly to”. You type the coordinates Derek says into the box and the area will come up. If you are like me and haven’t been paying attention to current technologies, you will be very impressed!)

46 18 56.14N, 112 25 39.47W is a green island in a sea of red north of Butte MT. For a good view of the Green islands in a sea of black type in the following locations:48 25 35.01N, 114 49 44.43W is the Brush Creek fire west of Whitefish MT. 45 41 34.44N, 113 45 13.15W is the Rat creek fire west of Wisdom MT. Perhaps my favorite is 48 48 22.39N, 115 11 12.55W south of Eureka MT. Use the “clockface” on the toolbar to see pre fire photos.

Beware a fickle public. The public’s perception of forest policy is really based upon aesthetics. 20 years ago they say a raw clearcut in a sea of green and decried them. Today they see a green regenerated clearcut in a sea of red or black and they wonder why they didn’t do more of them. The green islands are taking on a “forest role reversal” in the public’s mind. They’re also taking on a role reversal in forest structure that will impact wildlife. I’d like to further discuss this “forest role reversal” as it applies to the public and to wildlife.

Forest role reversal and wildlife: The photo at the top of this post just about sums it up. Last summer I was driving through a 10 year old burn north of Sula Montana when I spooked the herd of Elk in the picture. They were running into a 28 year old regenerated clearcut (so said a nearby sign). The clearing in the foreground they were grazing on was a mature forest that burned and was then salvage logged. It dawned on me that the clearcut that had survived the fire was now the hiding and thermal cover, and the burned old growth is now the forage. 10 years ago the roles were reversed.

Throughout millions of acres of MPB mortality in Montana and Colorado, the only hiding and thermal cover will be the regenerated clearcuts. I know there’s still spruce up high and fir down low, but many watersheds are almost pure stands of lodgepole. Furthermore, and contrary to public perception, very little of the “forested acreage”(I didn’t use total) was logged on National Forests in the impacted forests. Only 3% of the White River forest in Colorado was logged in 50 years. Only 7% of the helena, 5% of the Beaverhead-Deerlodge, and 7% of the Gallatin in Montana were logged in 50 years. Even in watersheds with a “timber emphasis”, seldom was more than 20% logged. The green islands are sprinkled about in “not to exceed 40 acre”(thankyou Mr. Bolle) lifeboats in a sea of red, black, and soon to be gray deadfall.

Furthermore, what will the “quality” of the forage be? I know the burned forests will have good quality forage. I know the forage will be heavy in the MPB deadfall but how “accessible” will it be? I read a tidbit in a USFS EIS for a Colorado salvage sale which says the deadfall will “restrict access to” and “make unavailable” the forage. Are there studies that show how much the deadfall will inhibit use? Perhaps salvage logging next to a “green island” would be very beneficial to Elk. Perhaps I could convince Judge Molloy of this. Nevertheless, habitat effectiveness tables will have to be redrawn across the west.

Forest role reversal and the public: Considering the disdain the public has for clearcuts-the following may be a reach. As crazy as it sounds, I think in the next 20 years the public will be choosing the green islands over the gray deadfall for more of their outdoor recreation. Case in point is Breckenridge Colorado. The USFS is proposing to salvage log 5000 acres around the town in a 600′ firebreak.. Because of deadfall, in 10 years the citizens won’t even want to try and walk past that firebreak. When I MPB salvage logged in the late 70’s, we literally had to cut our way in. It was easier to walk across the sale balancing on deadfall without ever touching the ground.

However, just west of town is a row of nice 25 year old “green islands” from the last MPB salvage effort in the 80’s. They were much derided then. I mentioned to the Mayor that he should urge the USFS to “pre-commercially”thin the regenerated lodgepole. This elevates the fire hazard for ten years of course, but then we know the MPB fire hazard isn’t gonna be really bad for 10-15 years until all the deadfall hits the ground. Too bad the USFS has prohibited pre-commercial thinning because of the Lynx Amendment. With thinning, those clearcuts could look like this area.

It’s a 35 year old clearcut thinned 15 years ago. Looks like a park doesn’t it. The below area is a 46 year old clearcut. You wouldn’t even know it if you were driving by would you.

Perhaps the biggest role reversal of all is that it’s starting to look like all that clearcutting was a good idea after all. The biggest missing ecosystem component for these forests wasn’t the old growth, it was the early seral. It was missing age diversity.

Derek Weidensee has been a licensed land surveyor for the last 20 years in Rapid City, South Dakota. Before that he spent 10 years as a logger, five of those in Montana and Idaho.

21st Century Problems, 21st Century Tactics, OR The Timber Wars Are So Over

In lodgepole country.. this quote from Andrew King

“This facility is not a power plant,” King said. “It’s all about forest health, and energy is the byproduct.”

Discussions of a biomass energy plant in Vail in this article.

Another interesting story about the Ocala.. are these the kind of 21st Century National Forest issues that were pretty much unimagined when NFMA was passed?

Reading these two stories made me think 1) are forests across the country so different and dealing with such different issues that planning requirements will always poorly fit someone, and 2) to what extent are we still stuck in a veg-o-centric view of what the issues and problems are; have we really thought about planning for social and economic problems and needs of the future?

Framework for New Planning Rule Posted on Forest Service Blog

The concepts for the new framework are posted here.

Here are the questions:

Please take a moment to provide us with your thoughts on:

*
Whether the concepts are clear.
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What you like about them.
*
If there are any major gaps or flaws in the approach.

We encourage posting whether on this blog or the official one or both..we’ll probably highlight and link here the ones we think most interesting on the official blog.

Should Restoration be the Forest Service Mission?

The first “substantive principle” in last year’s Federal Register notice for a new Forest Service planning rule is restoration.  How did we get here?  Should we get out?  Before we adopt the restoration idea as a central theme of the rule, we need to be aware of the pitfalls.

The idea of restoration started with site-based approaches on well-defined areas such as a minesite or a wetland.  In the 1990s, a need was recognized to expand the scope of restoration ecology to embrace broader scales and tackle landscape-scale problems.  The term  “Forest Landscape Restoration” was a term first coined in 2000 by a group of forest restoration experts that met in Segovia Spain.  Internationally, several organizations such as the Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration have formed to address the worldwide loss of half of the Earth’s forests over the last 200 years. 

There is currently a wealth of information about the emerging field of ecological restoration.  The non-profit Society for Ecological Restoration publishes a Restoration Ecology journal that helps explain restoration processes and descriptions of techniques.  The Society also works with the University of Wisconsin-Madison to publish an Ecological Restoration journal about current projects and techniques, and essays about the restoration idea.

Largely due to concerns about fuels and increases in large fires, the Forest Service started thinking about restoring fire regimes affected by a century of fire suppression.  Along with concerns about invasive species, declining road maintenance budgets, and climate change, in 2005, the Forest Service chartered a team to look at the evolving science of landscape restoration, and developed an Ecosystem Restoration Framework.  The framework made the following recommendations:

  • adopt a national policy regarding ecosystem restoration, including defining ecosystem restoration as “the process of assisting the recovery of an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged, or destroyed;”
  • increase the productivity of the agency’s restoration efforts through improved integration of various programs spanning all Deputy areas;
  • use national, forest, and project planning to engage Forest Service resources, partners, and stakeholders in identifying and implementing restoration needs and priorities;
  • use budget and performance incentives to increase accomplishment of ecosystem restoration objectives.

Based on these recommendations, an interim directive was initially written last year and updated in March.  This directive, Forest Service Manual id-2020 , says that ecological restoration is a “foundational policy” for all program areas for the National Forest System.  It defines ecological restoration as:

Ecological restoration.  The process of assisting the recovery of resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems that have been degraded, damaged, or destroyed.  Restoration focuses on establishing the composition, structure, pattern, and ecological processes necessary to make terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems sustainable, resilient, and healthy under current and future conditions.

As a signal of the intent of the Administration, the Secretary of Agriculture spoke prominently about ecological restoration in his August 2009 speech in Seattle about the Forest Service. 

Then, the restoration idea quickly got more attention when the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program was established in the 2009 Omnibus Public Lands Management Act.  Now restoration needs were tied to money, and not surprisingly, needs were identified nearly everywhere.

Restoration is now being offered as a central theme of a new Forest Service planning rule.  But there are several problems.

First, the Forest Service may have troubles reconciling the idea that there are “degraded” ecosystems which must be restored, with its 100-plus year history of managing these lands.  Are agency leaders willing to admit that past forest management policies were wrong?  Are these past policies continuing today?  How can they be changed?

I remember talking to a representative of the timber industry at a regional roundtable meeting on the planning rule in Rapid City, South Dakota.  He told me that there are many “managed” forests that aren’t in need of restoration because of past forest management practices.  He described those instances where timber management has been used to thin forests and reduce fuels.

Second, for some forest types, there isn’t a clear idea about what restoration might look like.  For instance, in lodgepole pine, trees will eventually burn or die from insects.  The presence of large fires or insect outbreaks does not mean that the system is out of balance.

The idea of restoration leads to several value-laden questions:  restoring to what?  restoring for what purpose?  what do you do once things are restored?  Earlier posts on this blog have discussed the confusion with the Forest Service multiple-use mission, and the wicked problem that Forest Planning attempts to solve.  In describing the social problem posed by the idea of restoration, Eric Higgs from the University of Alberta notes that restoration efforts rest in the notion of redemption, where we heal ourselves culturally and perhaps spiritually by healing nature.  Because nature and ecosystems are historically and culturally contingent ideas, Higgs suggests that there is no one single, fixed, correct restoration for any particular site, although structure, composition, and function criteria may provide tight guidelines for success of a project.

Third, shouldn’t the idea of “maintenance” of ecosystems at least get equal billing?  A regional watershed program manager recently told me that “maintenance” is a well thought out priority for land management, as captured in the mantra for the Northwest Forest Plan: “Save the best, restore the rest”.    Maintenance means your first priority is to make sure that ecosystems that are already functioning well stay that way.  Maintenance gets to the core of what the agency does on the landscape – all the mitigation measures (i.e  soil and water  BMPs) that we supposedly implement for our projects and for third party authorizations, to ensure that we “do no harm”.   Even if it’s important to fix what’s broken, it’s also important to not break anything else.

 The problem with a restoration only focus is that it could potentially reward bad behavior (you made a mess, now you get money to clean it up) rather than reinforcing good behavior (you implemented BMPs, monitored to see that they were effective, and nothing went wrong).

Fourth, there are the purported “myths” about restoration ecology.  In a 2005 article by Robert Hilderbrand, Adams Watts, and April Randle,  the authors describe five problems with the restoration idea.  First, there is a problem with the typical assumption that ecosystems develop in a predictable fashion toward a specified, static, end-point or climax.  Many Forest Service planners these days are enamored by the “desired future condition” description as the central part of a Forest Plan.  But when systems are “reset” they usually don’t end at the same point, and the idea that you can restore a “carbon copy” of an ecosystem is the first myth.

There is also the problem with the idea that restoration of the physical structure will result in the same biological response.  The authors point out the “field of dreams” myth – that if you build it, they will come.  It’s not apparent that you will get the same distribution of species when you create the previous habitat.

Other myths include the idea that you can “fast-forward” succession and ecosystem-development, that you can develop a “cookbook” of practices that can be used to restore landscapes, and the “sisyphus complex” that nature can be controlled.  We may describe detailed and specific desired conditions in a Forest Plan, but can we really control the outcomes?

The authors are clearly in the adaptive management camp, and they explain that to get beyond the myths, projects need decision points along the way for possible interventions with contingency plans if things aren’t proceeding appropriately.

In previous attempts to develop a planning rule, the Forest Service has committed to the idea of “sustainability” as the guiding star for management of National Forests.  This idea flows from the legal mandate under the Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act.  The idea of ecosystem services is an extension of the multiple use mission.   Perhaps restoration is a part of this mission, because the ecosystem must be functioning in order to provide the services.  But restoration may not be the full story, and perhaps it’s not the best way to describe the important work that must be done.

Harnessing the Power of the Many: Is the Forest Service Effectively Using the Internet?

Last weekend, I was recreating with family and got quizzed on a specific hazard tree removal project. Why did they leave the slash? Couldn’t they cut it up for firewood? Don’t they know how bad it looks near a major trailhead?

I certainly don’t know what the answers were, though I had ideas. Then when I got home, I noticed this essay from Bob Berwyn about another project. This is definitely worth a read, as Bob writes about his observations and questions about this project and its design. It’s true that Bob knows more than an average passerby; but it seems like we should be encouraging public interest and questions as a learning experience- even an approach to science (or conservation) education.

It’s great that people are interested in projects, but I have to wonder if in this day and age we could have some simple “how this project was designed and why” that could be linked to Google Earth.

Like the trailheads are on the Fourteeners website here. In general, the Fourteeners website tells you everything you want to know about those trails. You can also scan the trip reports to find out the latest conditions.

I wonder what it would take to start something like this for FS recreation or all lands recreation? Just think- you could find out that campgrounds and dispersed sites were full without driving around. You could find out that the roads or trail is still closed with snow. We could harness the power of the people who are out there (many, many more people than employees) simply by providing a place for them to leave comments.

The Park Service has visitor observation of trail conditions for Rocky Mountain National Park, so it is possible for feds to do such things (although it is kludgier than 14ers.com, in my view).

What if the Forest Service could harness the power of the internet to 1) tell the story of our projects, 2) keep visitors apprised of recreation conditions, and 3) to do some kinds of monitoring (OHVs off trails, regeneration, ?).

Do people have examples of forests and districts who have done some creative work in this arena? Please share.

A Good Word for Politics

From a piece by John Andrews in today’s Denver Post.

Hecklers, on guard. On this Independence Day, in a stormy election year when Americans are out of sorts, I’m fool enough to mount a soapbox and orate upon the proposition that “politics” should be an honored word, not a dirty word, in our vocabulary.

Politics deserves its bad name, you scoff. It’s a hustle wherein we are lied to and led on, defrauded and dumped on. H.L. Mencken nailed it, you say, when he groused that an election is but an advance auction of stolen goods. Will Rogers was right that just as “con” is the opposite of “pro,” so Congress is the opposite of progress. Fie upon the politicians, the parties, and all their tribe.

I concede your indictment — up to a point. But before you let fly with the rotten vegetables, remember that the Greek derivation of politics, 2,500 years and counting, simply denotes those things concerning the community, or city, and its individual members, or citizens. Can we write off those things? Not unless we’re prepared to live in solitude as hermits or in servitude as slaves. I’ll take my chances with politics, messy as it is.

Like any human endeavor, politics can be done in a noble or a base way. July 4 commemorates the noblest political moment of all — our nation’s birth in genius, blood and fire. But the Fourth also looks forward, reminding us how timeless our political challenges are across the centuries, powdered wigs and parchments aside.

Prove it to yourself today by reading quickly through the Declaration of Independence. The framers, after a lofty opening argument on “laws of nature” and “self-evident truths,” enumerate specific grievances like hammer-blows to pound home the case for change. They deliver (speaking of indictments) a 27-count rap sheet convicting king and parliament of intolerable misrule.

This piece is worth a read in its entirety, although the examples are mostly Colorado politics.

Often in natural resource or environmental disputes, we read opinions that infer that politics is inherently bad and that “science” is a better decision tool. You have probably seen the raised eyebrow and sneering tone, as in “that decision was political.”

There are varying degrees of this; one thing they have in common is an apparent lack of reading in the field of science and technology studies. In this field, people study how to use science in policy; yet many of their findings are not listened to or acknowledged by people attempting to make the science-first case. Yes, irony abounds here.

On this Fourth of July, let’s reflect on how we all (whether we like to admit to it or not) are continuing the Nation’s work of politics.