Energy and Mining News Roundup

Tradeoffs | Clark Corbin/Idaho Capital Sun photo of Idaho Stibnite Mine on Payette NF

We have spent some time discussing “ways the FS might improve” and “ideas for the new Admin.”  But I’ve noticed a drop-off in responses by current employees who are vital to the discussion, and I attribute it to end of the year annual leave.  I’m expecting those folks to be back the 6th of January or thereabouts.  I’m taking off the 23rd to the 6th.  For the next few days, I’ll be posting topics of general interest that have been postponed due to “improving the Forest Service” discussions.  We have also spent time talking about ideas like “naturalness” for federal lands,  and it seems like many projects are in themselves unnatural, from ski areas to mines, so perhaps the goal should be to design needed projects in ways that promote naturalness and environmental sensitivity. I don’t think “don’t do it” can be a final answer for many uses.

Energy and Mining Roundup

*****************

Big Tech Goes Nuclear and Natural Gas

The problem with predicting the future is that it seldom works.  Hence a bias for agility (what we might call adaptive management) over believing in predictions.   There are surprises that occur that are fairly unpredictable.  One such is the rise of AI, or data centers, and the Big Tech desire for round-the-clock electrical energy, large amounts of it.  They apparently don’t want to wait for battery technology or other renewable storage technologies to emerge  This has led them to take a deep dive into both nuclear and natural gas. David Blackmon has an piece discussing the natural gas vs. nuclear aspects in Forbes without a paywall.  Nuclear seems to be approaching a renaissance, driven by unpredicted energy needs of data centers.

Which raises a question.. there are many obstacles to the intended wind and solar buildout across the US; public pushback, the sheer scale of the materials and labor and maintenance needed and so on, when folks are saying our existing grid is in bad shape.  Pretty soon, after the data centers are going,  people are going to start asking “was that national buildout ever realistic? is it still needed? What should the role of industrial wind and solar be in a nuclear future?

Now, we often read about the bad history of the uranium industry and the Southwest (note Tribal and ENGO  resistance to uranium mine on FS land).

On September 20, 2024, the same day Governor Hobbs sent her letter to the Forest Service, the Forest Service responded to Attorney General Mayes’s request for an environmental review of the mine. Although it stopped short of saying it would conduct the review the attorney general and the governor are asking for, the agency did commit to take a look at recent scientific publications cited by the attorney general and said it would compile a report and communicate its findings.

But what if there were States that were fine with mining under current environmental and health standards?

Wyoming appears to be such a state. Check out the stories in Cowboy State Daily on starting up old uranium mines (just search on uranium on their site), e.g. recent buy of uranium processing plant.

UEC officials say they are seeing a huge demand for uranium right now, from multiple players, thanks to the rising use of artificial intelligence.

“I mean, that’s all you hear lately,” UEC Vice President of U.S. Operations Brent Berg has told Cowboy State Daily previously. “How all the big tech companies continue to dominate the news flow for nuclear. Amazon did three deals recently for small modular reactors. Google has made a commitment for reactors to power a data center by 2030.”

In fact, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta have all said they expect nuclear power to run the huge data centers they foresee needing as they incorporate advances in artificial intelligence to their operations. TerraPower is backed by Microsoft founder Bill Gates.

The trends for artificial intelligence and nuclear power are putting Wyoming front-and-center, and not just because it has the largest uranium reserve in the United States and its climate is conducive to artificial intelligence centers.

Wyoming has been working to innovate in the nuclear space for some time now, and it’s also working with a major submarine power plant maker to evaluate tiny nuclear reactors as one way to help augment the stability of electrical grids.

 Remember Yucca Mountain? 

Matthew Wald has an interesting post in the Breakthrough Substack today.

Hopeful news about Canada successfully siting a place for waste storage

The recent breakthrough is that the Canadian Waste Management Organization, a utility-owned nonprofit, says it has reached agreement with a tribe and a municipality to host a permanent repository. The site is in northwest Ontario, about 130 miles northeast of International Falls, Minn., and is located between the Wabigoon Lake Ojibway Nation, known as WLON, and the township of Ignace. It was one of two sites that were willing and had suitable geology. When completed, the repository’s underground tunnels will cover an area about 2 kilometers by 3 kilometers, or about 1.2 miles by 1.8 miles. Canada’s goal is for an “informed and willing” host. Canada embarked on that process in 2010. The United States is now following the same approach, as the path of last resort, following the stalemate at Yucca Mountain. Congress chose Yucca, 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas, over the objections of Nevada, but the effort was checkmated by Senator Harry Reid of Nevada after he became the Democratic leader in 2005 and then Senate Majority leader. Yucca is still technically the law of the land, but Congress has not appropriated significant money since 2012 to get it licensed.

The article has interesting history in the US and elsewhere.  There was a Blue Ribbon Commission, who reported back in 2012 recommending “consent-based siting” and in May 2024 the Department of Energy initiated the process (better late than never, I guess).

I wasn’t aware that the feds are on the hook for this: “A Multi-Billion Dollar Leak at the Treasury.”

But moving them to a single federally operated site would allow the department to begin accepting wastes from the utilities they signed contracts with in the 80s and 90s. The contracts called for the government to start receiving shipments in January 1998, and the courts have ruled that the government must pay for breaching those contracts, reimbursing the utilities for all their extra costs.

The audit, in November, estimates the compensation that the government will have to pay until it starts taking the waste, but does not give a date for that event. Twelve to fifteen years is probably the earliest that can be hoped for. It says in a footnote that the government’s liability is “in the range of between $37.6 billion and $44.5 billion,” of which $11.1 billion has already been paid. The fact that operators are applying to extend their licenses to 80 years means the government’s tab is getting bigger. And the money does not come out of the Energy Department’s budget; it is paid for by the Treasury’s “Judgment Fund,” the same account you collect from if you sue because your car was rear-ended by a government car. The fund is automatically replenished, without a vote by Congress, which has reduced the visibility of the problem.

****************

Idaho Windfarm Not Popular with Public, Elected Officials

I think we’ve spoken of this before.  One BLM retiree I spoke with, who had worked in the area, didn’t think this should have been approved due to sage grouse issues and the location of the Japanese internment camp, as well as the opinions of the local community and state officials, apparently including the Governor.

Fortunately, if new Admins were to follow up as with the Alaska Roadless decision, a new Admin could simply issue a new ROD from the old EIS, thereby saving government employees and the public time and expense.  Anyway, this is apparently not “consent-based siting.”

*******************

Not Enough Conflicting Uses on BLM, Why Not Data Centers?

I saw this on X yesterday.

It’s report called “Unlocking Federal Lands for AI Compute Infrastructure.”

This policy memo outlines the key considerations for leveraging federal lands to develop AI-centric computing hubs. It begins with an analysis of the legal and regulatory foundations that enable such endeavors, then explores how carefully structured PPPs can incentivize private investment while ensuring alignment with national goals. Subsequent sections will detail essential siting criteria, highlight potential candidate regions, discuss how to integrate lessons learned from renewable energy initiatives, and recommend criteria for environmental, security, and workforce considerations. Together, these insights map a course forward that marries private-sector capabilities with federal stewardship, ultimately enhancing America’s AI infrastructure, competitiveness, and national security.

************************

The Strategic/Military Importance of Antimony at Forest Service Mine

It’s interesting how much we discuss vegetation for “what the FS should be doing” as in Jim’s “naturalness”.  But there are other uses to which that concept does not apply.

Doomberg, a financial analyst/energy site rarely mentions the Forest Service so I took note of this:

“Meanwhile, the US is urgently working toward reopening the Stibnite mine in Idaho. Despite widespread local opposition to the plan, government approval could come in a matter of days. We would be shocked if final approval is not granted. This report is from early September:

“The US Forest Service issued a draft record of decision Friday authorizing a gold mining company to resume operations at Stibnite Mine in Central Idaho’s Payette National Forest, a proposal that would become one of the largest gold, silver and antimony mines in the United States. Friday’s draft record of decision begins a 45-day objection period where the public can comment on the draft record of decision and a 45-day resolution period. After that, the US Forest Service can issue a final record of decision, which supporters of the project said could happen before the end of the year….

Officials with Perpetua Resources, formerly Midas Gold, are seeking approval to resume mining at Stibnite Gold Mine. In a statement released Thursday, officials with Perpetua Resources said they plan to mine for gold and unlock the United States’ only reserve of a mineral called antimony, all while cleaning up historic mine waste. Perpetua Resources says antimony can be used to develop liquid metal batteries and ammunition.”