Steve Wilent

OSU professor Beverly Law and her researchers have published another paper on a topic we’ve discussed before, such as here — that it would be better, carbon-wise, to preserve forests rather than harvest timber. This new paper builds on that theme

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co-benefits of preserving forests in the western USA

Authors: Polly C. Buotte1, Beverly E. Law, William J. Ripple, Logan T. Berner

Abstract and conclusions below. The paper is behind a pay wall.

I noted in the abstract that the authors based their modeling on “two high-carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models.” RCP 8.5 was the subject of a recent article in Forbes by Roger Pilke Jr., “It’s Time To Get Real About The Extreme Scenario Used To Generate Climate Porn,” in which he says RCP 8.5 is a “worst-case scenario” and that “it may not even be a plausible worst-case scenario, because it requires improbable changes to our global energy policies, such as a wholesale return to coal throughout the 21st century and the abandonment of natural gas and renewables.”

So I hope any discussion here the Buotte/Law article will focus on climate modeling and scenarios, rather than the proposal to preserve much of the west-side forests and reduce harvesting (though that certainly is a topic of interest).

Abstract:

Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high-carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High-productivity, low-vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 TgCO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 years of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above- and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate.

Conclusions:

If we are to avert our current trajectory towards massive global change, we need to make land stewardship a higher societal priority (Chan et al. 2016). Preserving temperate forests in the western US that have medium to high potential carbon sequestration and low future climate vulnerability could account for approximately eight years of regional fossil fuel emissions, or 27-32% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for temperate and boreal forests, while also promoting ecosystem resilience and the maintenance of biodiversity. Biodiversity metrics also need to be included when selecting preserves to ensure species-rich habitats that result from frequent disturbance regimes are not overlooked. The future impacts of climate change, and related pressures as human population exponentially expands, make it essential to evaluate conservation and management options on multi-decadal timescales, with the shared goals of mitigating committed CO2 emissions, reducing future emissions, and preserving plant and animal diversity to limit ecosystem transformation and permanent losses of species

Thanks to Nick Smith for including this press release in his Healthy Forests, Healthy Communities news roundup today. The paper mentioned is here ($S). Goshawks prefer late-seral forest, but such stands are at greater risk of fire. California spotted owls aren’t the only at-risk species.

Changing wildfires in the California’s Sierra Nevada may threaten northern goshawks

Amsterdam, December 5, 2019 – Wildfire is a natural process in the forests of the western US, and many species have evolved to tolerate, if not benefit from it. But wildfire is changing. Research in the journal Biological Conservation, published by Elsevier, suggests fire, as it becomes more frequent and severe, poses a substantial risk to goshawks in the Sierra Nevada region.

How Northern Goshawks respond to fire is not well understood. The single study to date examined the effects of fire on nest placement and found that the birds avoided nesting in areas burned at high severity. The effects of fire on the birds’ roosting and foraging habitat however may be more complex, because prey populations may temporarily increase in burned areas and improve their quality as a foraging habitat.

“To effectively manage and conserve wildlife, we need to understand how animals use the landscape across their life cycle,” noted corresponding author Dr. Rachel Blakey at The Institute for Bird Populations and UCLA La Kretz Center for California Conservation Science.

Dr. Blakey and her colleagues at the institute wanted to better understand the habitat preferences of Northern Goshawks. In collaboration with scientists at the US Forest Service and the US Geological Survey Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at the University of Missouri, the research team looked specifically at how goshawks use burned areas in the Plumas National Forest, California.

Twenty Goshawks were fitted with solar-powered global positioning system (GPS) tracking devices that monitored the habitats the goshawks chose for foraging and night-time roosting. Goshawks preferred forest stands with larger, more mature trees and higher canopy cover-also called “late seral” forest-for both roosting and foraging.

“While there was individual and sex-based variability in selection of habitat at the finest scales, at the larger spatial scales that are arguably most important for management, goshawks consistently selected for late-seral forest,” added Dr. Blakey.

Unfortunately, late-seral forest is already in short supply in the western US and the attributes that make it attractive to Northern Goshawks also put it at a high risk of large and severe wildfires. Further analysis of the study area showed that 80 percent foraging habitat and 87 percent of roost sites were designated a “High Wildfire Potential Hazard” by the US Forest Service.

Rodney Siegel, Executive Director of The Institute for Bird Populations and co-author of the study said “A lot of work by our organization and others over the past decade has shown that some wildlife species are quite resilient to forest fire and can even thrive in recently burned forests.

“But habitat selection by the Northern Goshawks we studied suggests that these birds, with their strong preference for late seral forest attributes like big trees and closed forest canopy, are jeopardized by changing fire patterns that reduce forest cover,” added Dr. Siegel.

Dr. Siegel also notes that reducing wildfire risk in goshawk habitat will be a major challenge for forest managers. “The treatments to reduce risk of high-severity fire, including forest thinning and prescribed fire, may also reduce goshawk foraging and roosting habitat quality if they decrease canopy cover and fragment late-seral forest,” said Dr. Siegel.

Dr. Blakey expects that the foraging and roosting habitat preferences seen in goshawks in this study are probably common to goshawks throughout the Sierra Nevada region, and perhaps western montane forests in general. Likewise, this preferred habitat is likely at risk of high severity fire across the region as well.

“Given that fire regimes are changing across the range of the Northern Goshawk, both in the US and across the species’ distribution globally, the use of burned habitats by this species should also be investigated more broadly,” concluded Dr. Blakey.

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Press release about a Portland State University-led study. Open access, here…. and worth a look. The Management Implications section offers a concise look at the problems.

“…the team’s findings suggest that forest managers should consider projected climate changes and increasing wildfire size, frequency and severity on future forest composition when planning long-term forest management strategies.”

Well, yes, of course! That implies removing timber — commercial harvests.

The team also suggests that in light of the projected expansion of grand fir, managers should continue to reduce fuel continuity through accelerated rates of thinning and prescribed burning to help reduce the extent and severity of future fires.

Reduce fuel continuity — yes, but that’s not enough. Fuel loading needs to be reduced.

Study: Wildfires in Oregon’s blue mountains to become more frequent, severe due to climate change

Portland State University

Under a warming climate, wildfires in Oregon’s southern Blue Mountains will become more frequent, more extensive and more severe, according to a new Portland State University-led study.

Researchers from PSU, North Carolina State University, University of New Mexico and the U.S. Forest Service looked at how climate-driven changes in forest dynamics and wildfire activity will affect the landscape through the year 2100. They used a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest and fire dynamics under current management practices and two projected climate scenarios.

Among the study’s findings:

• Even if the climate stopped warming now, high-elevation species such as whitebark pine, Engelmann spruce and sub-alpine fir will be largely replaced by more climate- and fire-resilient species like ponderosa pine and Douglas fir by the end of the century.
• A growing population of shade-loving grand fir that has been expanding in the understory of the forest was also projected to increase, even under hotter and drier future climate conditions, which provided fuels that helped spread wildfires and made fires even more severe.

Brooke Cassell, the study’s lead author and a recent Ph.D. graduate from PSU’s Earth, Environment and Society program, said that if these forests become increasingly dominated by only a few conifer species, the landscape may become less resilient to disturbances, such as wildfire, insects and diseases, and would provide less variety of habitat for plants and animals.

Cassell said that the team’s findings suggest that forest managers should consider projected climate changes and increasing wildfire size, frequency and severity on future forest composition when planning long-term forest management strategies.

The team also suggests that in light of the projected expansion of grand fir, managers should continue to reduce fuel continuity through accelerated rates of thinning and prescribed burning to help reduce the extent and severity of future fires.

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The study’s findings were published in the journal Ecosphere. The research team also included Melissa Lucash, a research assistant professor of geography in PSU’s College of Liberal Arts and Sciences; Robert Scheller from North Carolina State University; Matthew Hurteau from the University of New Mexico; and E. Louise Loudermilk from the U.S. Forest Service.

Interesting item from the American Forest Resource Council‘s Nov. 2019 newsletter. This line drew my attention:

The Forest Service is developing a “market based” approach to timber sale appraisals that will aim to improve alignment between local market conditions and appraisal metrics.

I assumed that they’d been doing this all along. Anyone have insights?

Federal Timber Purchasers Committee Meeting
Last month the Federal Timber Purchasers Committee (FTPC) met in Alexandria, Louisiana with Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management leadership from around the country. The committee meets with agency personnel twice a year to discuss issues pertinent to the timber sale program. The meeting covered topics such as timber sale appraisals, updates to Forest Service manuals and handbooks, and product utilization standards.

The Forest Service had initially established a timber target of 3.7 billion board feet (BBF) for Fiscal Year 2019. That level was assigned to the Regions and then reduced by the Chief of the Forest Service in May to 3.3 BBF for reasons including, but not limited to, the government shutdown, the impact of not receiving the 2018 fire repayment, and delays in hiring new staff. However, the agency target, assigned by the Department of Agriculture, remained at 3.7 BBF. The Regions sold 3.26 BBF, attaining 99% of the adjusted target. The agency as a whole attained 88% of its assigned target. Forest Service leadership emphasized the need to grow in 2020 and anticipates establishing a timber target of 3.7 BBF with a goal of hitting 4.0 BBF in 2021.

These ambitions for growth will likely be augmented by ongoing Forest Service efforts including Forest Products Modernization (FPM), Environmental Analysis and Decision Making (EADM), and Shared Stewardship. Through FPM the Forest Service is developing a “market based” approach to timber sale appraisals that will aim to improve alignment between local market conditions and appraisal metrics. There was general agreement and recognition among all participants that demand for federal timber products remains high and that improvements to the agency’s appraisal practices will help ensure that all economical sales with useful products will sell. Coupled with this effort were recommendations that Regions and Forests improve their access to up-to-date information on product utilization specifications to ensure alignment with local industry standards. Revisions and updates to Forest Service Manuals and Handbooks are ongoing and solicitation for public comment is anticipated to begin this calendar year. Updates on items ranging from timber cruising to stewardship contracting will be rolled out in batches over a six-month period.

Efforts to supplement the agency’s capacity for growth through outside partnerships, generally referred to as Shared Stewardship, were recognized as an integral component of expanding active management. There are currently 10 Shared Stewardship Agreements signed across the country and an additional 10 in progress. Partnering with entities such as State governments and Tribes continues to be a national priority. Forest Service leadership emphasized not just the importance of establishing these agreements but also developing clear metrics that can be used to gauge their effectiveness to further the agency’s mission.

New Rocky Mountain Research Station publication of interest, “Of Woodpeckers and Harvests: Finding Compatibility Between
Habitat and Salvage Logging.” Not online yet, but linked here in our library.

The line from one of the researchers sums it up: “[T]“he logging treatments essentially accelerated the habitat conditions some woodpecker species prefer while not compromising the habitat needs of others.”

This Reno newspaper story, “Tahoe-area snow enthusiasts on edge over possible changes to snowmobile access,” describes conflict between motorized and non-motorized recreation. But what caught my attention was that the recreation plan for the Lake Tahoe Basin “has been in the works since 2011.” 8 years, so far, to produce a plan? It might be 10 before it is finalized. How might the process be shortened?

Excerpt from an LA Times article reprinted here:

Fed up with Forest Service cuts, some California towns are plotting a recreation takeover

FYI, Smokies….

The Southwestern Region of the US Forest Service is hosting the Collaborative Forest Restoration Program (CFRP) 2020 Annual Workshop on December 17-18, 2019 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

The workshop will be held at Hotel Albuquerque, 800 Rio Grande Blvd, NW Albuquerque, NM 87104, 1-505-428-1000.  The workshop is open to the public and there is no charge for attending.

Click here to register for the workshop.

The CFRP Annual Workshop brings together CFRP grant recipients, their partners and other stakeholders to share their experiences and discuss accomplishments, challenges, and strategies to overcome barriers to the implementation of collaborative forest restoration projects.  The workshop also provides an opportunity to explore ideas for future CFRP projects. CFRP grants can be used for forest restoration and small diameter tree utilization projects on or on any combination of federal, tribal, state, county and municipal and land grant lands in New Mexico.  To be eligible, grant applicants must use a collaborative process that includes a diverse and balanced group of stakeholders and appropriate government representatives to design, implement and monitor their project.  The 2020 CFRP Request for Applications and the agenda for the December 17-18, 2019 Annual Workshop will be posted on the CFRP website in mid-November at http://www.fs.usda.gov/goto/r3/cfrp.

Rooms have been set aside on December 16th and 17th, 2019 at the rate of $96.00 plus taxes per night (single/double occupancy) at Hotel Albuquerque 1-866-505-7829. To receive the group rate, guests must state that they would like to be placed within the “US Forest Service” block of rooms, or they may refer to the Block Code 1912USFS. Below is a link for online bookings.  The link may be used over the actual room block dates only and the date of arrival and departure should be selected.

 USFS 1912USFS

Please note the reservation cut-off date will be:  November 18, 2019.  After this date, any remaining rooms within the block will be released into the hotel’s general inventory.

For more information on the 2020 Collaborative Forest Restoration Program Annual Workshop, please contact Ian Fox at 505-842-3425.

From The Atlantic:

The Forest Service Is About to Set a Giant Forest Fire—On Purpose

A man-made blaze on a remote Utah mountainside could provide valuable insights into the behavior of the powerful wildfires growing more and more common out West.

It will be among the fiercest controlled burns scientists have ever studied in the wild—“as close to a wildfire as you can expect,” says Roger Ottmar, the principal investigator for the Forest Service–led Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE). The goal? To collect data on every aspect of the fire at once, in order to improve the models scientists and land managers use to predict the impacts of fires. That will allow the agency to oversee more controlled burns on landscapes that need fire to thrive, and the data will also provide insight into the large, intense blazes that keep erupting across the West—the types of unruly fires that climate change and changing land-use patterns are making more common.

An article about the El Dorado National Forest is interesting:

Change in the wind for U.S. Forest Service

Give an overview of the challenges the forest faces. For example:

Employing 250 permanent and 100 or more seasonal workers, with most of his budget spent on salaries and vehicles, Crabtree said there is very little flexibility to buy equipment such as a grader or backhoe. “On top of that we have an organization chart with about 40 vacancies and almost all of those are non-fire, so we are struggling.”

Also mentions a fuel break — nice map, too.

The Camino-Pollock Pines fuel break, a collaborative effort between the El Dorado County Resource Conservation District, Cal Fire and the Eldorado National Forest will expand and reinforce a major control line that was constructed during the 2014 King Fire along the ridge above the South Fork of the American River, north of Highway 50. Over 100 property owners are involved in creating the fuel break, which is approximately 600 feet wide and extends approximately 8 miles from the Union Hill area near Camino to the Pony Express Trail near Pollock Pines. This fuel break includes treatment on approximately 1,165 acres of private land and 1,000 acres of National Forest land.

There are other ridge-top fuel breaks in the area that have been around for decades.