Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Should the Forest Service and BLM Try This?

I’m not following the Northwest Forest Plan update.. fortunately many members of the TSW community are tracking it and hopefully will provide us with updates. But when I read this paper (open access), it made so much sense to me that I thought it was worth sharing. It’s about how the Bureau of Reclamation, one of the Forest Service’s many cousin DOI agencies, deals with the complex world of uncertain futures, climate change being one of many. Not only that, but even if we could project future microclimates accurately (which we can’t), we don’t know how climate changes will cause different interactions with hydrology, temperature, plants, animals, the rhizosphere, insects, diseases, etc. So there are different ways of planning based on acknowledging uncertainties. And yet at some point, the modeling and scenario-building with acknowledged uncertainties could get so complex that no single person could possible understand it. And how can the public effectively be involved in that case?

The Forest Service is legally required via NFMA to do long-range planning (although the RPA Program seems to have fallen by the wayside). The question is “what is the variety with which agencies approach the use of climate as well as other uncertainties in decision-making?” Are they consistent (even within a department)? Should they be? Are some approaches better than others? Based on what criteria?

I kind of like this approach; at least it might be worth a try in a pilot. Or perhaps the Northwest Forest Plan revision?

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
A focus on vulnerability, robustness, and adaptation necessitates an expansion of analytical methods beyond those traditionally used in long-term water resources planning. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) is a subfield of decision science that focuses on developing and applying the frameworks, tools and techniques necessary to produce actionable information while appropriately accounting for deep uncertainty (Marchau et al. 2019). Models have long been used to answer “what-if” questions (Bankes et al. 2013) and have been widely adopted in many planning contexts, including in the Colorado River Basin. DMDU builds on this model-informed decision making by helping planners strategically design the “what ifs” and offering new quantitative tools to drive models and analyze output. Since the early 2000s, a dedicated and rapidly growing community of researchers and practitioners forming the Society for DMDU (http://www.deepuncertainty.org) has been applying and refining DMDU methods in a wide range of domains including national security (Dixon et al. 2008), energy planning (Toman et al. 2008), and water resources management (Lempert and Groves 2010; Means et al. 2010; Basdekas 2014; Raucher and Raucher 2015; Groves et al. 2019).

DMDU techniques share a common underlying philosophy of designing iterative planning processes and analyses to identify actions that reduce a system’s vulnerability to uncertain future conditions. Robust Decision Making (RDM) (Lempert 2002) is described here as an example because Reclamation has used components of it in the past and is continuing to explore and develop related methods.

RDM is designed to facilitate a “deliberation with analysis” process through which parties can systematically integrate a large amount of information and wide-ranging positions about possible future conditions, important performance objectives, and appropriate actions to address challenges. The ultimate goals of RDM are to develop shared understanding of a system and identify a broadly acceptable plan or policy that is robust to a range of futures. The steps of RDM are depicted in Figure 3 and summarized below. Note that although the steps are numbered here and described in order, in practice the relationships between the components of RDM are flexible.

In Step 1, stakeholders define key components of the analysis: performance objectives and criteria; the sets of possible actions, or strategies, that could be undertaken in pursuit of the objectives; ranges of values for uncertain future conditions; and a model that simulates relationships between objectives, actions, and uncertainties. In Step 2, a proposed strategy is tested in a wide range of future conditions to generate a thorough representation of performance variability. In Step 3, the performance information is analyzed with statistical data mining techniques that seek to “discover” decision-relevant scenarios, or those combinations of uncertain conditions that cause the strategy to perform poorly. (This is a departure from traditional analysis in that the scenarios themselves are not dictated in advance of the procedure.) In Step 4, tradeoffs with respect to robustness, vulnerabilities, and costs among different strategies are analyzed, and a single strategy may be agreed upon. If insights from Step 3 or Step 4 warrant it, Step 5 may be necessary to reframe the decision and develop new strategies, at which point the RDM process repeats.

Rio Grande National Forest Plan Revision Litigation

I believe the Rio Grande revision is one of only two developed under the 2012 Planning Rule that have been litigated (the Flathead being the other).  Two lawsuits were filed against the Rio Grande in November 2021.  One of them (Defenders of Wildlife v. U. S. Forest Service) was decided a year ago by the district court and is on appeal to the 10th Circuit.  That case is worth some discussion, so here it is.  There has not yet been a district court hearing for the other case (San Luis Valley Ecosystem Council v. Dallas).  (The Colville revised plan litigation involved the previous 1982 planning regulations.)

On January 27, 2023, the district court upheld the Rio Grande revised forest plan’s compliance with the Endangered Species Act and NEPA for Canada lynx.  The judge framed the issue in this case as whether the Forest failed to “protect the lynx by inadequately limiting logging in the Forest under a revised forest plan in violation of the ESA, the National Environmental Policy Act (“NEPA”), and the Administrative Procedure Act (“APA”).”  The court found no violation of ESA in the Biological Opinion by the Fish and Wildlife Service, and it summarily dispensed with the NEPA and ESA claims against the Forest Service as being based on “substantially the same arguments.”

The case involves changing forest plan management direction for Canada lynx from that included in the Southern Rockies Lynx Amendment in response to insect-killed trees and blowdown over a large portion of the Forest.  The opinion asserts at the outset that, “Petitioner’s position is fundamentally flawed for at least three reasons.”  Two of these are troubling.

The court minimizes (or perhaps rejects) the need for ESA consultation on national forest plans because they are “programmatic,” and (citing the BiOp), “no immediate consequences occur directly to Canada lynx caused by the proposed action,” and therefore “implementation cannot be said to jeopardize the lynx directly.”  If plan cannot jeopardize a species, then there should be no need to consult.

These statements and this conclusion would be contrary to national Fish and Wildlife Service policy on consultation on “programmatic” or “tiered” decisions.  Forest plans are decisions that both promote activities that could adversely affect species through desired conditions and objectives, and limit those activities through standards and guidelines.  Consultation on such decisions is based on the effects that would be allowed to occur using the “design standards” in the decision.  There is no requirement that consequences potentially leading to jeopardy be “immediate.”

The court’s conclusion is also at odds with other cases, which emphasized the broad scope of agency “actions” subject to ESA.  The 10th Circuit has determined that, “Much like the promulgation of a regulation, we have little doubt after Norton that the act of approving, amending, or revising a LRMP constitutes “action” under § 7(a)(2) of the ESA.”  Forest Guardians v. Forsgren, 478 F.3d 1149, 1154 (2007).  The 9th Circuit held, “RMPs are actions that “may affect” the protected salmon because the plans set forth criteria for harvesting resources within the salmon’s habitat.”  Pacific Rivers Council v. Thomas, 30 F.3d 1050, 1055 (1994).  A requirement to consult on forest plans must presume that there could be some basis for finding substantive violations of ESA, so this court’s finding of a fundamental flaw here seems fundamentally flawed.

A second “fundamental flaw” results from the fact that, “lynx habitat in the Forest amounts to just over 2 percent of the lynx habitat in the contiguous United States,” and “none of that habitat was designated as critical.”  Therefore, “even if the lynx were extirpated in the Forest, that would not significantly affect the status of the lynx across the contiguous United States.”  This raises questions about the effectiveness of applying ESA’s requirements to wide-ranging species if no individual project or even a forest-wide plan could be viewed as capable of causing jeopardy.  This is a reason why the western lynx amendments were applied across ranges of the lynx, and consultation occurred on multiple national forests simultaneously.  The reasoning the court applied here highlights the risk of now disassembling a regional strategy on a forest-by-forest basis.  Doing so on one forest should arguably trigger the need to reinitiate consultation across the range of lynx (in this case the southern Rockies national forests).

This court’s view of ESA highlights the need to challenge species conservation provisions of forest plans under the viability requirement of the 2012 Planning Rule, even for listed species.  The requirements pertaining to species viability must be met based on their probability of persistence in the “plan area.”  Various statements cited by the court would support a conclusion that lynx are not likely to persist on the Rio Grande National Forest plan area over time.  This argues for strict scrutiny of forest plan components that would allow any adverse effects to occur from management activities.  Similar to ESA, the viability requirement contemplates long-term consequences of multiple activities over time, and effects need not be direct or immediate.  (In another context, the court points out that, “the revised forest plan is intended to remain in effect only until about 2036,” but it may be that management actions during the life of this plan would contribute to the “long-term” decline, which is the test applied by the 2012 Planning Rule).

There is a counter-argument that the 2012 Planning Rule applied the viability requirement explicitly only to “species of conservation concern,” which are defined to not include listed species, for which the requirement is to “contribute to recovery.”  However, at the point at which the species recovers, it should immediately become an SCC (see Planning Handbook §12.52d.2.b) and would need to meet the viability requirement.  Regardless, logic requires that what is needed to “contribute to recovery” should be something beyond what is needed to maintain viability after recovery, and that plan components for listed species must at least provide habitat for viable populations.

This outcome would be consistent with court interpretations of the NFMA diversity requirement under the 1982 planning regulations.  When the Forest Service argued that it did not have to meet the viability requirement for listed species, the 9th Circuit found, “The effect of the Forest Service’s position in this litigation, were it to be adopted, would be to reward the Forest Service for its own failures; the net result would be that the less successful the Forest Service is in maintaining viable populations of species as required under its regulations, the less planning it must do for the diversity of wildlife sought by the statute. This is directly contrary to the legislative purpose of the National Forest Management Act.”  Seattle Audubon Society v. Evans, 952 F.2d 297, 301 (1991).  (The San Luis Valley Ecosystem Counsel claims against the Rio Grande plan include NFMA violations for lynx and the Uncompahgre fritillary butterfly, but relative to the “contribute to recovery” requirement for listed species, and not the viability requirement.)

The third “overarching flaw” appears to derive from judicial deference principles.  The court specifically notes that, “the Court does not find that the presumption of validity that attaches to agency action is overcome merely because the revised forest plan changes the way the SRLA was previously applied in the Forest.”

The remainder of the opinion discusses the scientific rationale provided by the agencies for their effects analysis and decisions, and finds that they properly address questions raised by plaintiffs, and the court was “not persuaded that implementation of the revised forest plan is likely to make conditions worse for the lynx.”  (Perhaps under stricter scrutiny called for by the NFMA plan area viability requirement the court might have been persuaded.)  So maybe the court’s findings of “fundamental flaws” were just window dressing?

On January 17, 2024 the 10th Circuit held a hearing (listen here) in this case.  I have not read the briefs, but the hearing did not discuss the overarching issues reviewed above, so it appears that they are assuming (and apparently the government did not object) that the Rio Grande revised plan could theoretically cause jeopardy to lynx.

The hearing was narrowly focused on two issues, and particularly on the question of whether the northern portion of the Rio Grande should be managed as an area of low lynx use with less protection, as it is in the revised forest plan.  That turned on the question of best available science.  The only research on lynx that included the northern portion (Ivans) concluded that there could be high lynx use.  The Fish and Wildlife Service concluded otherwise based on discussions with unnamed biologists that were not specifically documented.  Importantly, there is no record of the reasons why the Ivans study was not accepted by the FWS (or the Forest Service).  If there were no conflicting information in the record, the unattributed sources might be sufficient, but that is not the case here.  The FWS conclusions could be considered arbitrary.

The second issue was about the importance of the lynx population on the Rio Grande, and/or the importance of the Colorado lynx population to the listed species.  The record indicated that the Rio Grande lynx are important to the Colorado population.  The FWS had also said elsewhere that all six populations in the lower 48 (the listed entity) are important, but then discounted the current importance of the Colorado lynx population because it was not historically important.  Ultimately the question appeared to be whether the FWS properly considered the importance of these lynx in its jeopardy determination for the species.

We await a decision.

 

 

 

Lawsuit Over 15 Acres on the Pisgah-Nantahala: New Forest Plans and Previously Approved Projects?

Mature trees on Brushy Mountain in Nantahala National Forest in August. Photo: Jack Igelman / Carolina Public Press

I’d like to point out to any FS leadership who read TSW that folks on the Forest wouldn’t talk to me to tell their side of the story.  So they are being good employees.  Problem is, if it weren’t for retirees who happen to keep up with the details (retirees like this being rare and threatened by loss of interest), we would never hear the FS side- unless there is an objection response on the same points. Maybe this would be a good application for AI.. “find the FS statements about … in the EA, response to comments and objections.” Still, I don’t think the Cone of Litigation Silence is good for public understanding, trust and support.

Anyway, here’s a link to Jack Igelman’s recent article on the issue. You can follow him on TwitX @ashevillejack.  I’m not a legal person, as everyone knows, so there are some quotes from me that are off the top of my head about why these 15 acres are of concern.  Conceivably with the same funding invested, the plaintiffs could buy their own 15 acres and manage it however they wanted.  Maybe our friends at SELC will weigh in.  Kudos to Jack for reading the EA!

The agency is obligated to manage the forest along the Whitewater River as a wild and scenic river corridor, which limits management options. However, timber harvesting is allowed to occur as long as it does not harm the river’s outstandingly remarkable values or degrade its water quality. The wild and scenic corridor extends about one quarter-mile on each side of the river.

“This timber prescription takes it backwards,” said Nicole Hayler, executive director of the Chattooga Conservancy. “The Forest Service has a track record of management activities in eligible areas to basically whittle away at the eligibility.”

Will harvesting “harm the values” or “whittle away at eligibility”?  I don’t think we can judge without the prescription. (NHP is the natural heritage program.)

In the Southside Project’s final Environmental Analysis released in 2019, the Forest Service included a response to objections that the project analysis failed to analyze impacts to state natural areas.

The NHP determined that portions of the stand are dominated by white pine, an artifact of previous land use that is not naturally occurring.

According to the NHP, “It would be beneficial to remove the white pines from this stand, and then manage the area after harvest in such a way to restore the natural community” while acknowledging that some areas along the Whitewater River are in excellent condition.

The NHP did not respond to CPP’s interview request.

But if it’s good to remove the white pines, then maybe taking some more trees and getting openings for the “natural community” is a good idea.  Again, it would be nice to see the prescription.

The timber harvest prescriptions for the tract “require harvesting much more than white pine,” SELC attorney Patrick Hunter said. “We can say with certainty that the NHP’s request to limit logging to white pine is not reflected in the Forest Service’s final decision.”

But did the NHP say to limit the logging to WP? What other species are there? Is taking out the WP and other species an opportunity to increase tree species diversity or wildlife habitat?

Although the lawsuit includes a relatively small parcel of land, Friedman said that the court’s ruling could establish legal precedent around the influence of new forest plans on projects initiated and authorized under prior plans.

“The same groups who didn’t want certain projects before will still not want them” after a forest plan is finalized, she said. “If they feel strongly enough about them and have the financial wherewithal, they will litigate those projects. That’s just the way it works for most of the country; it’s business as usual. “

Litigating forest restoration projects in the Forest Service’s Southern region, however, are less frequent compared to other parts of the country, such as the Northern or Pacific Southwest region. There has been just one forest restoration project litigated in the Southern region which stretches from Texas to Virginia since 2003.

Hunter told CPP this is the first time SELC has initiated litigation against the Nantahala or Pisgah National Forest.

Whether the case is settled inside or outside of court, Friedman said changing an existing agency decision may set a precedent for other projects and other national forests.

According to Hunter of the SELC, the lawsuit seeks to validate the understanding that activities occurring within the national forest must be consistent with the current forest plan.

He noted that the complaint could reinforce existing precedent citing a 2006 decision against the Cherokee National Forest in Tennessee in which the court ruled that a timber harvesting and road building project must be made consistent with a revised forest management plan that went into effect after the projects’ authorization.

The legal action reflects broader concerns about balancing the need for timber harvesting to restore the ecology of the forest while preserving ecologically significant areas and underscores the complexities of managing public lands.

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Of course, the Cherokee NF is indeed in Region 8, so I guess the difference is whether the project is a “restoration” project or a “logging” project.  I would only offer that what the FS sees as a restoration project (with tree removal), other entities often see as a “logging” project.  This is a real side trip-  but I ran across a paper by Miner et al. from 10 years ago (no paywall) that had this graph. The authors characterized these as “land management” cases, not necessarily vegetation management cases.

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David Whitmire, of the Fish and Wildlife Conservation Council, which represents the interests of fishers and hunters in Western North Carolina, said the lawsuit could, however, slow down forest-restoration work.

“I would rather see money spent on projects rather than lawyers,” Whitmire said. “The Forest Service is having to back up and deal with the lawsuit. It takes away a lot of resources that would otherwise benefit the forest.”

I’d only add that if this case sets precedent for forest plans being retroactive for ongoing previously approved projects, I think it might have two effects: first that Forests will not want to do plan revisions. When I worked in Region 2, many forests were not enthused about plan revisions anyway (reopening large numbers of disagreements to what end?).   Second is that if they are in revision, they would seemingly be less inclined to give areas with ongoing projects more restrictive designations.  It seems that both of these co-evolutionary responses by the FS would be against what plaintiffs would ultimately prefer.

But perhaps the plaintiffs will weigh in.

New available science for wildlife connectivity

National Parks Conservation Association

Federal lands are separated by highways all over the west.  Those highways are a barrier to many species of wildlife, including species listed under the Endangered Species Act and those identified as Species of Conservation Concern (SCC) in national forest planning. Climate change is recognized as increasing the importance of wildlife movements.

Forest Service planning regulations pertaining to designation of SCC require consideration of all threats to the species’ persistence in the plan area, whether or not the threats occur within the plan area or are the result of national forest management.  Often, significant threats to these at-risk species come from outside of the federal lands; one of these is the effect of highways on connectivity.   The Forest Service could improve prospects for some species to persist in the plan area by making it easier for them to get to and from it.  They can do two things to promote that.  They can 1) collaborate with other agencies managing land, wildlife and transportation to identify the most important areas to jointly manage for connectivity, and 2) manage their lands in or near these areas to minimize barriers to wildlife movement, first by recognizing them as such in forest plans.

There’s a new tool from the Center for Landscape Conservation that could help with identifying the important areas consistently across the west.  As with any newly available science, the agencies involved should be looking at this mapping tool and determining whether and how they will use it, and ideally documenting the rationale, especially for disregarding this new information.  National forests should be checking their forest plans to see whether their assigned management areas would make these connectivity areas less attractive to wildlife movement, and amending plans as needed.

The study that produced these maps also found that “1,523 of the CC (“collision and connectivity”) segments (338 mi) have enough collisions to make it more cost-effective to build a wildlife crossing than to do nothing,” and land management agencies should support such efforts and manage their lands to facilitate their use by wildlife.

More on the Nez Perce-Clearwater-Lolo revision (and the Great Burn)

Here’s a little more (added to this) on the Nez Perce-Clearwater revised forest plan.  Mostly I wanted to share this graphic of how they are “reaching out” to the public.  They ask an important question:  “What can you do?”  The obvious meaning seems to be what can you do about the forest plan, and the answer for most people is “nothing.”  They say that the plan is in the objection period, but don’t tell us that the only people who can participate are those who have already done so.  They invite us to “learn more,” about this nearly-done deal, which they misleading label as a “draft Forest Management Plan.”  (At the draft EIS stage, the Planning Rule refers to it as the “proposed plan,” and at the objection stage it is just the “plan.)   While they have must have included similar outreach at earlier stages in the process, for those encountering this for the first time, it’s almost disingenuous.

But while I’m at it , there was also another article recently that focused on the State Line Trail, which runs through the Hoodoo Recommended Wilderness Area in the Great Burn between Idaho and Montana.  (I’ve been there but haven’t been directly involved in the planning, so know only what I read.)

“It used to be a marquee backcountry ride for mountain bikers, too. That ended in 2012 when the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest, which controls the Idaho side of the trail, approved a new travel management plan that barred bicycles from its portion of the trail. On the Montana side, the Lolo National Forest has long allowed bicycles on the trail.”

A new revised forest plan for the Nez Perce-Clearwater could change that, by determining that bicycles are an appropriate use in the portions of Idaho around the trail, which would mirror access on the Montana side. If the changes in the plan are finalized, possibly later this year, that would set the stage for the Nez Perce-Clearwater to revisit and alter its 2012 travel plan to formally re-allow bicycles on the trail.”

The rationale behind these changes, according to the forest supervisor, don’t seem to include consistency (more on that later):  “We have these types of very primitive, amazing, out in the middle of nowhere experiences that you can get to no matter what your matter of conveyance is.”  No apparent agency recognition that the conveyance is part of the experience for those who encounter it, and for some it makes it feel unpleasantly more like “somewhere.”

One of the supporters added, “It’s a small segment of the sport that this is going to appeal to,” he said. “It’s not that close to Missoula. It’s hard. The trail’s in deteriorating condition. But this opportunity is, for certain people, something they really, really want.” That small segment of certain people (who apparently want to deteriorate the trail even more) must be pretty special to get this kind of personalized attention.

“Some mountain bikers are drawn to remote, rugged, and challenging backcountry trail experiences on wild and raw landscapes,” a group of supporters commented. “These are places where it is uncommon to see other trail users, and where riding requires a high level of physical fitness and technical skill — in many cases it involves pushing a bike instead of riding at all.”  That would be like hiking, wouldn’t it?  So, it’s not like closing the area to this use would exclude these physically fit people from these wild and raw landscapes.  I’ll admit that I don’t understand the rationale of wanting to experience a “wild and raw landscape” on a machine, which (to me) reduces the rawness and wildness of the experience.

The aura of personal opinion and politics behind these wilderness debates is why I focus my energy on other things.  Here there is also talk about snowmobiles and mountain goats, and why mountain goats are treated differently in adjacent national forests.

As for the effects of snowmobiles on mountain goats, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game blamed them for disappearance from one part of this area, but the founder of the Backcountry Sled Patriots says otherwise (citing other research).  The Lolo National Forest cited the negative effect of motorized over-snow machines as reason for designating them a species of conservation concern.  The Nez Perce-Clearwater is not concerned about mountain goats.  The Forest Service minimizes the importance of the areas at issue to mountain goats (though they apparently used to be some places they are not found now).

About the Lolo, Marten, the regional forester, who determines which species are SCC, wrote:

“Compared to other ungulates, the species appears particularly sensitive to human disturbance. Motorized and non-motorized recreation, as well as aerial vehicles, are well documented to affect the species, particularly during winter and kid-rearing season, with impacts ranging from permanent or seasonal (displacement), to changes in behavior and productivity.”

The regional director for ecosystem planning said that she didn’t see the different listing decisions as being in conflict with each other. Rather, she said, they reflect that mountains goats are doing better overall on one forest than the other.  This may be technically/legally possible since SCC are based on persistence in an individual forest plan area.  However, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to manage one national forest to increase the risk to, and to contribute to SCC designation on, another forest.  Moreover, the Planning Handbook states that “species of conservation concern in adjoining National Forest System plan areas” should be considered by the regional forester in making this designation.  This all has kind of an arbitrary ring to it.

As for consistent management across national forest boundaries, The Nez Perce-Clearwater plans to change the shape of the Hoodoo RWA to remove the key snowmobile areas from it, so that boundary between the national forests becomes a boundary for the RWA.  The Forest Service points out that the plan revision process in the hands of forest supervisors, not the regional office.  The forest supervisors disclaim any obligation for consistency, and even suggest that travel planning may produce a different result, and “forest plans and travel management plans are continually updated and amended” so they could change again.  That doesn’t square well with history.  The every-third-of-a-century Forest plan revision should be the time to get it right.  Even if the regional forester doesn’t want to say what the plans must do, that person could simply order them to be consistent along this boundary.

Does the Old Growth Amendment Supplant or Redefine NRV?

Old growth LPP

First of all, let me say that there are probably people in the Forest Service who have thought all this through.  I’m hoping that they will help out with their explanations in the comments.

If old growth is old growth, and mature forests are on their way to old growth, and young forests are on their way to mature forests.. then it seems like there is no ceiling on the amount of old-growth needed, and no reason to ever have openings other than “natural” ones.  This can be problematic, conceptually, as some groups believe that today’s wildfires and wind events are all unnatural or caused or “supercharged by” the anthropogenic part of climate change.

And if you believe that, then does any ecosystem have “integrity”?   Or is the key thing to promote resilience (including biodiversity) in the face of climate change and protect key values of ecosystems and people from these and other dangers?  To keep diverse living trees alive on the landscape, and to protect water, wildlife and other values?  Perhaps some will say “it’s the same thing” and if it is, then perhaps the use of plain English would save time and misunderstanding.

Let’s go back to the 2012 Planning Rule Handbook:

Assessing the status of ecosystems—their level of ecological integrity—is difficult. There is no guide that provides a comprehensive protocol, and each ecosystem has a unique body of scientific information relevant to the ecological assessment. The planning rule and supporting handbook identify departure from the natural range of variation as a criterion to assess ecological integrity. The natural range of variation refers to the variation in key ecosystem characteristics produced by dominant natural disturbance regimes, usually in a pre-European influenced reference period. This method works well for ecosystems that are relatively well-studied and their natural range of variation can be estimated through ecological modeling or other methodology.

(my bold).  Now, as most readers know, I wasn’t a fan of this approach at the time.  At that time,  my thinking went along these lines… (1) there’s a great deal of pre-European time and yet a certain time has to be selected, humans have been around since glaciation;  (2) animals and plants move around and hybridize- and evolution is part of Nature, after all;  (3)  time’s arrow only goes one way, at least genetically;  and (4)  if climate is changing faster than usual, then there is no reason to think that the past is well adapted to the future. And don’t we want forests that are adapted to the future? As described in the Handbook, it unintentionally downplays the role of Indigenous fire management and the idea “natural= pre-European” only fits if Indigenous folks are part of Nature, which some now consider to be racist. It would perhaps be clearer and more accurate to say “we want to go back to Indigenous ways of managing the landscape,” if that’s really the case, but again we’d need more Indigenous people and give them authority over federal forests plus make them do not what they think best but what they think their ancestors did.  And the importance of Indigenous management and climate have only become clearer or perhaps “supercharged” in more recent discourse.

Many forests have done vegetation modeling and historic research, and came up with desired conditions of say, certain amounts of habitat with certain characteristics.  For example, x acres of early successional habitat, or y acres of  western white pine or oaks, or even the historic densities of some species.  So logically, to recreate these conditions, we may need to thin trees for density reduction and create openings for some pine and oak species to regenerate.  There are different ways of getting openings.  Depending on where you are, openings could occur due to wildfire, wind events, volcanoes, floods, trees dying from old age and/or native or introduced diseases and pests, and so on. With or without attribution to anthropogenic factors of climate change, some of these are more natural than others (fire suppression and non-native species obviously not).

Generally, the only other way is to manage is via prescribed fire or some combo of mechanical treatments (aka “logging” or “tree-cutting”) and prescribed fire.  So do we still want those carefully arrived at NRV distributions or not?  According to some, if the opening-treatments  would occur in currently mature or old-growth forests, then not.  So that leaves “natural” disturbances (affected by AGW, so then unnatural, except for volcanos?) and hoping that they get to the desired ratios; or alternatively, doing openings over and over in younger forests but not mature ones, so that they don’t go through their successional stages, which seems also unnatural.   Look who wrote about the importance of early successional  ecosystems in this 2011 paper (abstract)

Different disturbances contrast markedly in terms of biological legacies, and this will influence the resultant physical and biological conditions, thus affecting successional pathways. Management activities, such as post-disturbance logging and dense tree planting, can reduce the richness within and the duration of early-successional ecosystems . Where maintenance of biodiversity is an objective, the importance and value of these natural early-successional ecosystems are underappreciated.

So will the new OG amendment effectively replace the concept of “pre-European conditions” with “creating as much old growth as possible”?  Because we can imagine quite a possible tension between “maximizing old growth” and “ensuring diversity of tree species”,  and the latter  would be important to fulfill certain requirements of NFMA, specifically.

“provide for diversity of plant and animal communities based on the suitability and capability of the specific land area in order to meet overall multiple-use objectives, and within the multiple-use objectives of a land management plan adopted pursuant to this section, provide, where appropriate, to the degree practicable, for steps to be taken to preserve the diversity of tree species similar to that existing in the region controlled by the plan;”

My bold, Of course, trees and bark beetles, do their own things, unbothered by humans’ desire for shade or carbon credits, or even plan amendments, forest-specific or national. From the Fire Effects website:

The average lifespan of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine is 150 to 200 years [37,170], though some Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine trees live more than 400 years

The Endangered Species Act turns 50

You can read any number of articles right now about this that say ESA was adopted by a nearly unanimous Congress and signed by President Nixon on December 28, 1973.  Its supporters find success in its protection of 99% of the species listed from extinction, while critics complain that only 3% have been recovered.  To me, that’s apples vs oranges, because it is much easier for a law to stop bad things from happening than to make good things happen.  I’d love to see those who complain about ESA out there arguing for more money to implement recovery plans.  (And I fail to see the logic of opposing additional listings because recovery is unlikely, when recovery without listing is even less likely.)

But I was curious about what the Forest Service might have to say about this momentous anniversary, and this posting showed up on their website.  It’s written about California, but must represent the agency’s perspective.  The current priority is evident in the second paragraph:

Large, extremely hot fires have ripped through many of these lands, charring if not destroying habitat crucial to species survival. To help reduce the risk of large, devastating fires, the Forest Service is working to remove vegetation that could feed a fire and is working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to simultaneously support the conservation of listed species.

That would be listed species that depend on “vegetation that could feed a fire,” which would be removed.  We’ve seen that with spotted owls, the Fish and Wildlife says this should mean focusing fuel reduction projects on areas that are less important to the species.  It would be interesting to hear about how this approach is being implemented through agency policy, forest plans, and/or implementation strategies.  This explanation by the Forest Service falls a little short of a “strategy” for accomplishing this.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which manages the species program, often partners with the Forest Service on steps to protect species listed under the act. Collaborative efforts carry intertwined goals forward. Wildlife specialists and biologists from each agency review project plans, survey forests for species populations, collect data, and analyze the best available science. The Forest Service often includes wildlife conservation measures in as part of land management planning, which means on-the-ground activities needed to increase forest resilience align with the needs of wildlife.

For example, specific types, sizes and heights of trees are left in areas of a forest known to be actively used as nesting or denning sites by threatened or endangered species. The Forest Service plans work to occur during times of the year that will not disrupt key life stages, such as mating season or when adults are caring for young. The Fish and Wildlife Service reviews these plans before work is started to ensure that species needs are being met.

I like that they recognize the importance of forest plan standards as a key tool for protecting species, but I’d like to know more about “Collaborative efforts carry intertwined goals forward.”

 

Nez Perce Clearwater Forest Shrinks Great Burn (Recommended) Wilderness

The details of this plan are outside my range of knowledge, but I thought this story was interesting.  First of all the headline, “shrinks Great Burn Wilderness”. Of course, forest plans can’t actually do that, so I looked further and the plan reduces the Recommended Wilderness.  Which of course is not the same thing. Headlines.. sigh.

The Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest supervisor trumpeted her new forest plan as the best compromise for all, but when it comes to proposed wilderness, both advocates and opponents disagree.I’m not a fan of using the word “trumpeted”.   It seems like there’s been “emotional wording” inflation since folks discovered that emotions drive engagement which drives bucks in internet world.

The story has many quotes from Probert, the Forest Supe,  the Great Burn Conservation Alliance executive director Hayley Newman,  and other ENGO folks.

“The Forest Service has sat back while illegal motorized use has encroached on the Great Burn for years, and now it’s decided to reward illegal use by rewriting the forest plan to make it okay,” said Maddy Munson, Wild Montana Public Lands director.

Newman said one forest – the Nez Perce-Clearwater – shouldn’t be allowed to diminish a wilderness that’s partially managed, and managed differently, by another forest: the Lolo. For example, the Lolo Forest recently designated the mountain goat as a species of concern while the Nez Perce-Clearwater has not. Plus, one forest plan might sway another, said Katie Bilodeau, Friends of the Clearwater staff attorney.

Yes, plans done on a forest by forest basis may not harmonize across boundaries. The idea of “swaying” is interesting. Conceivably earlier plans may make it easier for the next plan to make the same kinds of choices.  I don’t see that that is good or bad necessarily unless you don’t like ideas in the earlier ones.. but that could work both ways “hey that forest gave us an extra 100K of RW, so you should too!”

I thought that this was interesting.

In her decision rationale, Forest Supervisor Cheryl Probert said the question of what to recommend as wilderness garnered the most public interest of all aspects of the draft forest plan released in December 2019, accounting for 18% of almost 20,000 comments.

Different forests have people interested in different things during planning and apparently wilderness is big there.

Probert said she’d heard about the need to protect wolverine and mountain goats but also heard complaints from snowmobile users who said that “there are no replacements for the opportunities provided here.” She asked opposing groups to come up with a compromise, but none came. So she carved the area up to create one.

I don’t know if it’s just the way it’s reported, but it sounds like she herself did it. I’m thinking it’s likely that her staff and she had many discussions and they probably didn’t all agree.  It sounds kind of dismissive “she carved up” versus, say, “after a series or far-ranging discussions with members of the public, interest groups,  elected officials, she and her staff came up with this proposal as a possible solution.”

In fact, wilderness groups want the Forest Service to enlarge the Great Burn Wilderness to encompass adjacent roadless areas to the west, an addition of 40,000 acres. But, Probert bypassed three plan alternatives with more recommended wilderness – between 309,000 and 857,000 acres – preferring an alternative with just 197,700 acres of proposed wilderness.

However Probert did propose one new wilderness, Meadow Creek, with almost 73,000 acres adjacent to the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness south of the Selway River.

Hopefully some TSW readers, including motorized folks (apparently not interviewed for this article) will weigh in and add their perspective.  Just a thought.. there seem to be forest vegetation collaborative groups where people who disagree reach compromises.. this doesn’t seem common in recreation disputes (or is it?).  Maybe our social science friends have studied why that might or might not be the case.

Finally, did opening up the decision about Recommended Wilderness via plan revision lead to a better on-the-ground outcome in some way?  Did it encourage groups to work together, or just open a new arena for the same old battles?

 

Honeybees on public lands?

Western bumblebee (Xerces Society / Rich Hatfield)

The rusty-patched bumblebee and Franklin’s bumblebee have been listed under ESA and other species are being considered.  The Xerces Society considers 11 species of bumblebee to be at-risk.  The Forest Service and BLM allow special use permits for non-native honeybee apiaries on their lands based on categorical exclusions.  Here is the one applicable to the Forest Service (36 CFR 220.6(d)(8)):

(8) Approval, modification, or continuation of minor, short-term (1 year or less) special uses of National Forest System lands. Examples include but are not limited to: (i) Approving, on an annual basis, the intermittent use and occupancy by a State licensed outfitter or guide; (ii) Approving the use of National Forest System land for apiaries; and (iii) Approving the gathering of forest products for personal use.

The science?  According to this article:

Most scientists agree that honeybees are not native to the Americas. They were imported to the continent in the 1600s on cargo ships from Europe and arrived in Utah in the mid-1800s.

Honeybees tend to outcompete native bees for pollen. Tepedino said, “if you put enormous numbers of honeybees on public lands … the native bee population must, by necessity, be deprived.”

A study by Tepedino concludes that the honeybees in a single apiary can, in just four months, remove enough pollen to raise five to 13 million native bees.

O’Brien said that competition is also worsened by climate change. Because climate change leads to more drought and as a result fewer flowers, it is becoming more difficult for native bees to compete with honeybees, she said.

Mary O’Brien (a botanist) also said the CE was instituted in the 1980s, before scientists knew very much about native bees. She points to the western bumblebee, a species she said is “critically imperiled” in Utah. It is particularly threatened by diseases, including ones that are transmitted by honeybees.

Project Eleven Hundred was born about five years ago in response to a request for a permit to place 100 hives each at 49 sites in the Manti-La Sal National Forest.  That permit was denied, but there is currently a permit on the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forest that is up for renewal at the end of this year, which is being contested and may be litigated.  Project 1100 has also petitioned to remove the CE.

In forest planning under the 2012 Planning Rule, species of conservation concern are to be designated SCC if there is a risk to their persistence in the plan area.  Both listed species and SCC must be addressed in forest planning to ensure that the plan decisions (components) adequately protect these species from threats.  Since commercial non-native apiaries are a threat to these species, a forest plan should consider, and probably adopt standards that regulate or prohibit issuance of permits for honeybees.  (I’m guessing wild honeybees are found on most national forests.)

The proposed revision of the Manti-La Sal National Forest Management Plan  allows apiaries, subject to a standard stating that permits “shall not be issued for placement of hives within 5 miles of known insect-pollinated, at-risk plant species locations or at-risk insect populations.” It also states that a maximum of 20 hives can be issued for each apiary special use permit (which is arguably “not commercially viable”).  O’Brien said this is an impossible precaution to enforce. “As if they know where [native bees] are,” she said. “…The western bumblebee would be considered at risk, and they don’t know where it flies.”

The western bumblebee was NOT designated as an SCC in the Manti-La Sal’s draft of its revised forest plan.

New to national forests – carbon sequestration

The world’s largest carbon direct air capture facility has started construction in Iceland

From the news release:

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service today announced a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) that would allow the agency to consider proposals for potential carbon capture and sequestration projects on national forests and grasslands. This proposal would harmonize the framework between the federal government’s two largest land managers by aligning with regulatory structures already established for the U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management.

If this amendment is finalized, applications for carbon sequestration on national forests or grasslands would be considered for permanent use. The proposed regulation changes the initial screening criteria to allow the Forest Service to consider proposals for carbon capture and sequestration projects and does not allow for any other permanent uses on national forests and grasslands.

From the Federal Register:

The United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (Forest Service or Agency), is proposing to amend its special use regulations, which prohibit authorizing exclusive and perpetual use and occupancy of National Forest System lands, to provide an exemption for carbon capture and storage.

Carbon dioxide injected in pore spaces may remain for over 1,000 years after injection and would be tantamount to an exclusive and perpetual use and occupancy if authorized on NFS lands.

The proposed rule would not authorize carbon capture and storage on NFS lands. Rather, the proposed rule would exempt proposals for carbon capture and storage from the initial screening criterion prohibiting authorization of exclusive use and occupancy of NFS lands, thereby allowing the Forest Service to review proposals and applications for carbon capture and storage and to authorize proposed carbon capture and storage on NFS lands if, where, and as deemed appropriate by the Agency.

Proposals for underground storage of carbon dioxide would have to meet all other screening criteria, including but not limited to consistency with the applicable land management plan, potential risks to public health or safety, conflicts or interference with authorized uses of NFS lands or use of adjacent non-NFS lands.

Of course it would have to be consistent with forest plans, but would a forest plan that authorizes “exclusive and perpetual use and occupancy” of national forest lands be consistent with the Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act?  (Is the BLM different in this regard?)  I assume that’s why the existing special use regulations are written to prohibit permanent uses.  Maybe this should be viewed as a question of divesting ownership rather than a permitted special use.