The Smokey Wire : National Forest News and Views - Community Sourced, Shared and Supported

Science Friday: Adapted Ecosystems or Dynamic Assemblages: Two Views of Critters’n’Plants on Landscapes

July 23, 2021 by Sharon

Emily’s comment about barred owls reminded me of something I’ve been working on more broadly: when is it OK for humans to manipulate organisms, and when isn’t it, and who decides? It seems like it’s OK to kill one species to protect another species in the name of “retaining a species.” Perhaps it would matter (?) if the barred owl migration was “natural” or not.. but how would you tell, since colonization, climate change, introduced or not diseases, and a variety of other changes happen through time and are correlated. I don’t think we’ll ever tease the potential causes apart. And when each species declines, the ESA response seems to be to “protect more habitat”, which as we see, won’t always work.

So we’re trying to stop a possibly natural process (competition among species) in order to recreate past “naturalness”, or to keep going a maximum number of species, or because it’s the law of the land. This seems like something we’ll only be able to do in a limited number of cases. I wonder what principles will or should guide our choices? These are certainly not scientific questions, although the choices could be informed by science, including economics. It almost seems like the same action (say thinning trees) is considered to be “good” when its for restoration, but “bad” when it’s for protecting communities. Killing birds is “good” when it’s about protecting endangered species, and potentially “bad” when wind turbines do it. So if some purposes are better than others, then that’s not a science question at all. When does the end justify the means and perhaps more importantly, how does our system of governance deal with different points of view on the subject? Has their been a public comment period on the practice of killing barred owls?

Underpinning all this may be the idea of “keeping all the species where they used to be is necessary for ecosystem (integrity? health? function?).” But that’s not actually “natural” in any practical sense as Stephens, Millar and … (2009) say here.

Paleorecords in areas where abundant information exists can be used as a test of what has been sustained naturally overtime. When Quaternary vegetation records from the Sierra Nevada were assessed, Millar and Woolfenden (1999b) found that only a few conditions often associated with ecological sustainability concepts pertained. These included: (1) relative stability of the Sierra Nevada ecoregion, i.e., persistence of a distinct ecoregion over time, and, (2) persistence of overall species diversity at the scale of the entire Sierra Nevada ecoregion, with only one species, a spruce (Picea spp.), disappearing from the region about 500 000 years ago. Beyond these two features, however, other conditions commonly associated with ecological sustainability did not occur. At sub-regional scales within the Sierra Nevada, species diversity changed considerably at timescales of centuries to millennia. Movement of individual species meant that vegetation assemblages changed over time and/or shifted locations as species followed climate gradients individualistically (Woolfenden1996). Vegetation communities appeared sometimes to shift locations, when individual species tracked climate coincidentally, and in other cases, changed composition and dominance relations as species responded differently. Non-analog communities occurred transiently, such as the co-occurrence 20–30 thousand years ago in the southern Sierra Nevada of yucca (Yucca brevifolia) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma) with an understory of Artemesia tridentata, Purshia tridentata, and Atriplex concertifolia (Koehler andAnderson1995). Finally, historic fire regimes reconstructed from the Sierra Nevada have changed over time at multiple scales (Swetnam1993); however we recognize that the largest change in Sierra Nevada fire regimes occurred with the onset of fire suppression in the early 20th-century.These and similar records challenge interpretations of ecological sustainability that emphasize persistence of population sizes and species abundances, stability of native distribution ranges, and continuity of vegetation and wildlife community compositions. By contrast, we find that, of the diverse concepts commonly associated with ecological sustainability, only native species persistence within large ecoregional boundaries, such as the Sierra Nevada, pertains. Our goal here is not to imply that any combination of species would be acceptable in Sierra Nevada forests but that managers should not attempt to maintain all species at their present locations, as climate continue to change this will probably not be possible or desirable.

Of course, they’re not talking about a species being completely gone from everywhere. At some point, though, I think we may cross from seeking the “natural” to something sublimely unnatural.. the Disneyland equivalent of Nature.

Preliminary Estimates of Sequoia Mortality in the 2020 Castle Fire

July 22, 2021 by Steve Wilent

Portions of a report from the Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks:

Although some giant sequoia trees have stood for thousands of years and are adapted to withstand frequent low and mixed severity fires, preliminary estimates suggest that the 2020 Castle Fire killed between 31 to 42% of large sequoias within the Castle Fire footprint, or 10 to 14% of all large sequoias across the tree’s natural range in the Sierra Nevada. This translates to an estimated loss of 7,500 to 10,600 large sequoias. These estimates may change as we acquire new data.

Why Did This Happen?

A combination of one hundred years of fire suppression along with climate change driven hotter droughts has resulted in a denser forest with unprecedented levels of fuel loading. These conditions have changed how wildfire burns in the southern Sierra Nevada, resulting in large areas of high severity fire effects and mass fire events that generate their own weather. The Castle Fire of 2020 was one of these megafires.

What Steps Can Be Taken to Protect the Sequoia Groves?

In order to reduce fuels and restore wildfire resilience, we will need all available tools in the toolbox. Prescribed burning remains one of the most important management tools to reduce fuels in sequoia groves, favor regeneration, and increase resilience of these groves to climate change and wildfires. However, smaller burn windows and massive fuel accumulation means that prescribed fire is not able to keep up with the treatment needed and some areas cannot be safely treated with fire. Restorative thinning is an additional too that can be used to help protect the sequoia groves.

OSU Study of NSO: Barred Owl is Biggest Threat

July 22, 2021 by Steve Wilent

PR from Oregon State U., emphasis added….

Removal of barred owls slows decline of iconic spotted owls in Pacific Northwest, study finds

July 19, 2021

CORVALLIS, Ore. – A 17-year study in Oregon, Washington and California found that removal of invasive barred owls arrested the population decline of the northern spotted owl, a native species threatened by invading barred owls and the loss of old-forest habitats.

The conservation and management of northern spotted owls became one of the largest and most visible wildlife conservation issues in United States history after the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the spotted owl as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 because of rapid declines in the owl’s old-forest habitats. Four years later, the Northwest Forest Plan was adopted and reduced the rate of logging of old-growth forests on federal lands.

Despite more than 30 years of protection, spotted owl populations have continued to decline, with steepest declines observed in the past 10 years. Long-term monitoring of spotted owl populations across the species’ range identified rapid increases in the population of invasive barred owls as a primary reason for those declines, the researchers said.

The study published this week in PNAS by scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey, Oregon State University, and several other entities is the first to look at the wide-scale impact of barred owls on populations of spotted owls in the Pacific Northwest.

The study focused on two sites in northern California, two in Oregon and one in Washington and found that spotted owl populations stabilized in all study areas where the researchers lethally removed barred owls (0.2% decline per year on average) but continued to decline sharply in areas without removals (12.1% decline per year on average.)

The findings in the new paper inform future management decisions about the spotted owl population.

“This study is a promising example of successful removal and suppression of an invasive and increasingly abundant competitor, with a positive demographic response from a threatened native species,” said David Wiens, the lead author of the paper who is a wildlife biologist with the USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center in Corvallis and a courtesy faculty member with Oregon State’s Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences.

As a species native to eastern North America, barred owls began expanding their populations westward in the early 1900s. The newly extended range now completely overlaps that of the northern spotted owl.

While barred owls look similar to spotted owls, they are larger, have a stronger ecological impact and outcompete spotted owls for habitat and food. This competition exacerbated spotted owl population declines, which were historically triggered by loss of old-forest habitat.

Mounting concerns about the threat of barred owls prompted a barred owl removal pilot project from 2009 to 2013 in California that concluded removal of barred owls, coupled with conservation of old forest, could slow or reverse population declines of spotted owls.

The research outlined in the PNAS paper expanded the pilot project to cover a much wider geographic range and a longer time period. The new research showed that barred owl removal had a strong, positive effect on survival and population trends of spotted owls that was consistent across all five study areas.

The conservation and restoration of old forests, which has been a chief focus of recovery strategies for the northern spotted owl, is a major source of controversy in the Pacific Northwest. The barred owl invasion has exacerbated this issue, placing an even higher premium on remaining old conifer forests.

“While suppression of barred owls can be difficult, costly, and ethically challenging, improvements in vital rates and population trends of spotted owls, and perhaps other threatened wildlife, can be expected when densities of barred owls are reduced from current levels,” the researchers write in the paper. “Alien predators are considered to be more harmful to prey populations than native predators, and the dynamic interactions between invasive and native predators can lead to profound changes in ecosystems, often with considerable conservation and economic impacts.”

NPR: The Bootleg Fire Gives Scientists An Unexpected Experiment

July 21, 2021 by Steve Wilent

Great article from July 20, but not news to foresters and tribes: “The Bootleg Fire, The Nation’s Biggest, Gives Scientists An Unexpected Experiment.” Excerpts:

Ecologists in a vast region of wetlands and forest in remote Oregon have spent the past decade thinning young trees and using planned fires to try to restore the thick stands of ponderosa to a less fire-prone state.

This week, the nation’s biggest burning wildfire provided them with an unexpected, real-world experiment. As the massive inferno half the size of Rhode Island roared into the Sycan Marsh Preserve, firefighters said the flames jumped less from treetop to treetop and instead returned to the ground, where they were easier to fight, moved more slowly and did less damage to the overall forest.

The initial assessment suggests that the many years of forest treatments worked, said Pete Caligiuri, Oregon forest program director for The Nature Conservancy, which runs the research at the preserve.

“Generally speaking, what firefighters were reporting on the ground is that when the fire came into those areas that had been thinned … it had significantly less impact.”

The reports were bittersweet for researchers, who still saw nearly 20 square miles of the preserve burn, but the findings add to a growing body of research about how to make wildfires less explosive by thinning undergrowth and allowing forests to burn periodically — as they naturally would do — instead of snuffing out every flame.

…

Historically, wildfires in Oregon and elsewhere in the U.S. West burned an area as big or bigger than the current blaze more frequently but much less explosively. Periodic, naturally occurring fire cleared out the undergrowth and smaller trees that cause today’s fires to burn so dangerously.

Those fires have not been allowed to burn for the past 120 years, said James Johnston, a researcher with Oregon State University’s College of Forestry who studies historical wildfires.

The area on the northeastern flank of the Bootleg Fire is in the ancestral homeland of the Klamath Tribes, which have used intentional, managed fire to keep the fuel load low and prevent such explosive blazes. Scientists at the Sycan Marsh research station now work with the tribe and draw on that knowledge.

This refutes some of Chad Hanson’s claims in his new book, Smokescreen, which we discussed here:

“Thinned forests often burn more intensely in wildland fires,” [Hanson] writes, “because thinning reduces the windbreak effect of denser forests, allowing winds to sweep through more rapidly, while also reducing the shade of the forest canopy and creating hotter and drier conditions.”

There may be some situations where fuels, weather, and topography can allow this to happen, but “a growing body of research” shows that reducing fuels and thinning works. I’m glad the NPR article mentioned the role of the tribe’s knowledge and practices.

Climbing conflicts: Forest Service intervenes in Tensleep Canyon

July 21, 2021 by Sharon

Ken Hilton climbs “Question Crack Center,” 5.11b, in Tensleep Canyon. (Matt Enlow)

We haven’t had a recreation piece for some time and this is from April, but…the story is very comprehensive and interesting. Check out the whole article in WyoFile.

Then word got out. And as climbing’s global profile exploded in the last two decades, so too did the canyon’s popularity, threatening it with the now familiar fate of so many Western recreation destinations — being loved to death. Parking lots became overcrowded, user-created trails proliferated, erosion began to degrade areas at the base of cliffs and human waste became an issue as dispersed camping mushroomed.

The discovery of heavily manufactured climbing routes — a widely condemned practice in which the rock is manipulated with tools or glue — fueled a battle over ethical development. Before long the controversy boiled over with online fulminations and a nighttime raid by climbers manually chopping bolts from rock faces.

These photos, which have been widely shared on Facebook, show climbing holds that have been allegedly manipulated by humans either by chipping out rock or glueing. That practice is condemned unethical in the climbing community. (Screenshot/Facebook/Ten Sleep Canyon Aerospace Society)

Into the mess stepped the U.S. Forest Service, which in July of 2019 issued what amounted to a moratorium on the establishment of any new climbing routes or trails in the entire Bighorn National Forest.

In the two years since, the Bighorn’s Powder River Ranger District has been drafting a climbing management plan for Tensleep Canyon. It released a scoping document in February, and received nearly 500 comments by the March deadline. The agency will work through the summer to prepare the draft environmental impact assessment.

The issues in Tensleep Canyon made it clear that the plan was overdue, Powder River District Ranger Traci Weaver said.

“Our stance was: ‘Timeout, give us time to finish our climbing management plan, give us time to move forward thoughtfully and work together with all our user groups … and come up with something that’s sustainable into the future,” she said. “What was happening in Tensleep Canyon was not sustainable.”

The plan has the potential to ripple beyond the walls of the canyon, climbing advocates say. As one of only a handful of Forest Service plans specifically focused on climbing, it could influence how the pursuit is managed on national forest land across the U.S.

Lovers of the canyon say they hope it strikes a balance that protects the precious resource while still allowing for human enjoyment of the place. But with more people than ever visiting public lands like Tensleep Canyon, that task only grows more complicated.

USFS Chief Christiansen Wildfire Priority Letter

July 19, 2021 by Steve Wilent

Chief Christiansen sent this letter to top staff officers on July 14. Excerpts:

“We are seeing severe fire behavior that resists control efforts. Further, the seasonal forecast for the entire Western United States remains extremes for the next several months. We expect demand for resources to outpace resource availability, and our workforce remains fatigued and in need of recovery following last year’s record-setting fire season, active hurricane season, and strenous efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

…

“I understand this direction requires us to make difficult trade-offs with our other high-priority mission work. This is especially challenging at present, when we are working diligently to accomplish performance goals and restoration outcomes. As the mission support workforce shifts priorities to fire, this also means trade-offs in non-fire contracts, hires, grants, payments, among others.”

Retired Law Enforcement FS Employee Quoted in Wall Street Journal, and the Non-Partisan Table of Past Indiscretions

July 19, 2021 by Sharon

I try to stay away from Partisan Political Drama, especially Department of the Interior Political Drama, but had to share this editorial board piece in the Wall Street Journal about a Forest Service law enforcement retiree. I had to sign up for the Wall Street Journal to access it so I thought I’d share the FS retiree part of the article so you all don’t have to.

In responses to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Ms. Stone-Manning attested she was never “a target” of the investigation. She says she knew nothing of the plot and does not recall “ever discussing tree spiking” with the perpetrators. Her excuse for not immediately turning them in to authorities was that she “did not actually know if they had done what the letter described.”

Public documents have cast suspicion on this version of events, but now the former lead investigator of the 1989 crime has come forward with evidence suggesting Ms. Stone-Manning’s testimony is false. Michael Merkley, a retired special agent for the Forest Service, in a four-page letter to the committee says Ms. Stone-Manning was “not an innocent bystander.” After an investigation led his team to search the Missoula residence where Ms. Stone-Manning and other Earth First! members had lived, he says, a grand jury served subpoenas “on persons suspected of having knowledge of the incident, including Ms. Tracy Stone-Manning.”

Mr. Merkley reports that Ms. Stone-Manning through his investigation was “vulgar, antagonistic, and extremely anti-government” and refused to provide the hair, handwriting and fingerprint samples ordered by the grand jury until threatened with arrest. She refused to answer questions, leaving investigators in the dark for years about the suspects.

Mr. Merkley says that in 1992 he made contact with another woman in the group, who exposed the spikers and Ms. Stone-Manning’s involvement. But this woman also “recounted a conversation she had overheard wherein Ms. Stone-Manning along with other co-conspirators planned the tree spiking and discussed whether to use metal or ceramic spikes in the trees.” This testimony, he says, inspired the grand jury to send Ms. Stone-Manning “a ‘target letter’ which meant she was going to be indicted on criminal charges.” She negotiated a deal “to gain immunity in exchange for her testimony.”

Meanwhile, backing up Mr. Merkley is a new interview in E&E news with John Blount, a ringleader of the operation, who went to jail for 17 months. While Ms. Stone-Manning was not “heavily involved in the planning,” he says she “knew about it far in advance, a couple of months before we headed out.” He provided details of the plan, saying Ms. Stone-Manning was supposed to mail the letter from Billings, in order to throw off investigators.

Anyway, we have seen various problems with high level appointees of various kinds.. and the press tends to be remarkably partisan in their ways of reporting.

So.. I think we need to develop a “Non-Partisan Table of Past Indiscretions” so we can apply the same criteria to appointees from different groups.

1. What was it?
2. How long ago?
3. Was it a one-off or continuing?
4. What kind of evidence is there?
5. Was law enforcement involved, if so how?
6. What job is it exactly? Should we be more careful about a Supreme Court Justice than a BLM Director?

Feel free to add other criteria to the Table.

Finally, it seems a bit odd that the Admin knew about it and nominated her anyway. Because President Biden said he was trying to unify the country, and this doesn’t seem like the way to do it. IMHO. Perhaps it’s intended to be a sharp stick in the eye to someone.. but who and why? Certainly not Montana loggers?

Many sources state that BLM morale has been bad since the Trump Administration. If I worked there, both this nomination and the level of “sticking by” that’s occurring wouldn’t help my morale. I’d prefer a retired diverse career person who was widely respected by the rank and file. You?

Science Friday: Turning Wood Into Plastic

July 16, 2021 by Sharon

Our discussion about the Bootleg Fire reminded me of the mountain pine beetle outbreak in the 80’s and the desire to use some of that material. The idea then was a waferboard plant in Chiloquin, Oregon. But the FS couldn’t guarantee supply and it was a large investment and no one stepped up. Forty years later, people in various parts of the West still don’t have markets for what I call FRR (forest restoration residuals). 4FRI has a guaranteed supply, and still has trouble finding purchasers. Finding products that will use this material and businesses that will pencil out has been a bit of a Holy Grail.

Here’s another possible use for fuel treatment and forest residuals..

To create the slurry mixture, the researchers used a wood powder — a processing residue usually discarded as waste in lumber mills — and deconstructed the loose, porous structure of the powder with a biodegradable and recyclable deep eutectic solvent (DES). The resulting mixture, which features nanoscale entanglement and hydrogen bonding between the regenerated lignin and cellulose micro/nanofibrils, has a high solid content and high viscosity, which can be casted and rolled without breaking.

Yao then led a comprehensive life cycle assessment to test the environmental impacts of the bioplastic against commons plastics. Sheets of the bioplastic were buried in soil, fracturing after two weeks and completely degrading after three months; additionally, researchers say the bioplastic can be broken back down into the slurry by mechanical stirring, which also allows for the DES to be recovered and reused.

“That, to me, is what really makes this plastic good: It can all be recycled or biodegraded,” says Yao. “We’ve minimized all of the materials and the waste going into nature.”

The bioplastic has numerous applications, says Liangbing Hu, a professor at the Center for Materials Innovation at the University of Maryland and co-author of the paper. It can be molded into a film that can be used in plastic bags and packaging — one of the major uses of plastic and causes of waste production. Hu also says that because the bioplastic can be molded into different shapes, it has potential for use in automobile manufacturing, as well.

One area the research team continues to investigate is the potential impact on forests if the manufacturing of this bioplastic is scaled up. While the process currently uses wood byproducts in manufacturing, the researchers say they are keenly aware that large-scale production could require usage of massive amounts of wood, which could have far-reaching implications on forests, land management, ecosystems and climate change, to name a few.

Yao says the research team has already begun working with a forest ecologist to create forest simulation models, linking the growth cycle of forests with the manufacturing process. She also sees an opportunity to collaborate with people who work in forest-related fields at YSE — an uncommon convenience.

Perhaps this could be simplified by establishing a third-party certification system for residuals; then you wouldn’t have to speculate as to “far-reaching implications.”

As to automobile manufacturing, there’s a 2016 paper on wood in car manufacturing. And history wise , during WWII there’s wood gas for cars. In 1924, Upson and Eriksen of the FS Forest Products Laboratory wrote an article in SAE Transactions on wood for automobile bodies.

Bootleg Fire, pyrocumulus clouds and biomass logging?

July 21, 2021July 15, 2021 by Matthew Koehler

Yesterday afternoon, I noticed on Twitter that the National Weather Service in Medford, Oregon identified pyrocumulus clouds coming from the Bootleg Fire.

So, I decided to have a closer look at what the landscape where those pyrocumulus clouds were coming from looked like. Here’s what I found.

It appears that much of the area burning hot was very heavily logged/roaded/managed. Also, this is clearly a dry-east side forest, not the lush Oregon forest many people outside of the region may assume when they hear that a big “forest fire” is burning in Oregon.

Next, I started hearing from numerous sources that the heavily logged/roaded and ‘managed’ area where the Bootleg Fire ripped and roared through yesterday—putting up those pyrocumulus clouds—is allegedly part of a huge biomass energy, “forest offset” (ie “carbon offset) logging project.

CarbonPlan sent out numerous tweets stating:

As the #BootlegFire burns out of control in Oregon — with critical implications for public safety, air quality, and forest health — we can report that another large forest offset project appears to be on fire.

And this:

The project impacted by the #BootlegFire, ACR273, is a 400,000 acre forest project that was recently harvested for timber and has earned more than 950,000 offset credits from California’s climate regulator as it regrows. acr2.apx.com/mymodule/reg/p

I also have noticed a number of tweets from Gary Graham Hughes of Biofuels Watch, which included information such as this:

Extreme fire behavior is a result of the logging. You are missing the #climate ironies of an offset project going up in smoke plus the tens of millions of dollars of public money for Red Rock Biofuels unicorn bioenergy project that has never yet produced even one gallon of fuel.

And this:

The fire is exploding through heavily logged lands belonging to Green Diamond Resource Company, holdings that are registered as an offset project for California cap-and-trade as well as been committed to provide feedstock for the unicorn #RedRockBiofuels project in #Lakeview.

I also couldn’t help but notice this tweet from the John Muir Project:

Satellite imagery of the #BootlegFire area (perimeter updated on July 13, 2021) from 1985 to 2020. Note large swaths of land that have been "managed",clearcut, logged, & thinned during this time frame. @forestservice #StopTheChop #ListenToScience
Footage: Bryant Baker
Stay safe pic.twitter.com/JJKV2Q98SH

— John Muir Project (@JohnMuirProject) July 15, 2021

Or this map produced by Bryant Baker (MS) of Los Padres Forest Watch of the management history of the Bootleg Fire area.

I’m sure in the coming days and weeks we’ll end up learning more. It goes without saying that this part of the country just experienced some of the highest temperatures on record (and it was 121 degrees in…Canada). And this part of the world is also currently under exceptional drought or extreme drought.

If all of this sounds sort of familiar it’s because it should be. The same situation just played out in Oregon ten months ago during the deadly and destructive Labor Day fires. Speaking of those fires, and also the role that downed power lines have played in some of the most deadly and destructive wildfires in recent years, Oregon Public Broadcasting just published this story, “Residents of Gates, Oregon, aim their ire at Pacific Power nearly a year after their town burned: Despite high wind warnings, Pacific Power chose not to shut off electricity.”

According to Inciweb, the cause of the Bootleg Fire is currently “unknown.” Inciweb also reports, “Fire remains very active with significant acreage increases due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions, and plume-dominated fire behavior. Poor humidity recovery at night is contributing to active fire spread through the night time period. Robust spread rates are being generated by drought-affected fuels. Expecting similar conditions for the next several days.”

Stay safe everyone. And pray for rain…and climate action and more climate resilient communities and infrastructure. It’s going to be a long century.

UPDATE (July 20, 2021): According to InciWeb, on July 19th, the Bootleg Fire merged into the Log Fire to its northeast and now is being managed as one fire. Total acres burned to date are 388,359 acres. The cause is still “unknown.”

This is the aerial view of the northern part of the Bootleg Fire, again showing how heavily logged and roaded this specific part of the fire area is.

Also, here’s an updated map produced by Bryant Baker (MS) of Los Padres Forest Watch showing the management history of the Bootleg Fire area.

UPDATE (July 21, 2021): These new maps from Oregon Wild illustrate the extent of logging and grazing across the Bootleg Fire footprint.

Colorado Utilities Protecting Infrastructure from Wildfires

July 15, 2021 by Sharon

Electric utility workers try to protect a transmission line on Aug. 23, 2020, after a pole burned in the Grizzly Creek fire in Glenwood Canyon. (Handout)

When Matthew raised the question about how Colorado utilities deal with wildfire risk, I found this piece in the Colorado Sun:

Wildfire risks will almost certainly worsen. The Fourth National Climate Assessment published in 2018 projected the annual area burned in the contiguous western United States will increase 200% to 300% by mid-century. In a sense, this year’s fires are merely a warm-up act. And this year’s hot summer will, in the future, be considered cool.

People have also been rapidly moving into the foothills of Colorado and other areas called the wildland-urban interface, an average increase of 2.5% annually from 1990 to 2010, according to a study conducted by Silvis Lab. As of 2017, half of all Coloradans lived in areas at risk to wildfires, the Colorado State Forest Service reported in 2018.

If wildfires keep up the way they are going, at least where trees and brush grow back slowly, I don’t think they’ll be enough unburned places left by 2050 to sustain a 200%-300% increase in acres burned (or they will be grass fires with not exactly the same kinds of suppression strategies nor impacts). It should also be pointed out that some of these seemingly scary WUI numbers are grasslands- which can also burn, but not exactly the same. In fact, some of the Headwaters maps show desert and grasslands as having the highest amount of undeveloped WUI.

The utility says 2,100 miles of its overhead distribution feeder lines in its service territory and 2,900 miles of transmission lines are within the wildfire risk zone that was developed by the Colorado State Forest Service. Its goal has been to “harden” the electrical delivery system and revise operations to reduce risk by increased use of tools such as infrared inspection to identify thermal “hot spots” with priority in high wildfire risk areas, LIDAR technology and drones to provide detailed pole-top inspections.

By the following June, the company had assembled a wildfire mitigation team to explore what types of additional or accelerated projects could further mitigate the risk of utility-caused ignitions. Xcel spent $10.7 million in 2019 while inspecting 2,900 miles of transmission lines and replacing 2,305 distribution wood poles among the 67,162 it inspected.

In its filings, Xcel identifies $590 million in wildfire mitigation programs from 2019 through 2025. At least some of these costs it seeks to recover through additional revenue via a rider on customer charge. If approved by the Public Utilities Commission, a typical residential electricity customer’s bill would increase by 49 cents a month, to $69.53, Xcel says on its website. The rider would be adjusted during the next four years.

It seems to make sense that the folks using the energy would have to pay for hardening the transmission lines.