The FS Budget Deficit, the Attrition Factor and Generational Change (in Recreation?)

Hopefully more knowledgeable people will correct or add. Here is what I’ve been hearing.

  1. The Department told the FS that they had act as if the current House budget numbers for 2025 were going to be final. This usually isn’t ultimately the case, but is conservative.

My view if this is true: well, the Department has to pick a number for now, and I can’t argue for any number, over any other as being more realistic.  Plus it’s their call. Here’s what Government Exec said about the numbers.

The Forest Service asked for $8.9 billion in funding in the president’s fiscal 2025 budget request in March.

The House version of the Department of the Interior, Environment and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, released on July 11, includes $8.4 billion for the Forest Service, with a projected 3.5% cut from fiscal 2024 levels, but a 4% increase for wildland fire management.

2.  Not as many people retired as predicted. This is also what Gov Exec reported.

“following the findings of a strategic hiring assessment, workforce attrition was “well below 5%,” which signaled the need for more measured hiring plans.

“On one hand, we should celebrate that our staff are staying because they feel connected to the mission, they feel heard, and they are committed to improving our nation’s forests and grasslands,” said Moore. “To stay within budget and continue to deliver on our core mission, we must implement tighter controls on both internal and external hiring.”

Moore said that the Forest Service will move forward with 157 tentative job offers already made to external candidates and will continue to prioritize internal hiring to promote advancement for agency employees, but will focus future outside hiring on “the highest priority positions”.

Those positions include public health and safety roles, those needed to fulfill critical mission deliverables and highly specialized or difficult-to-fill jobs internally. Moore said the Office of the Chief would approve external hiring based on criteria, including converting permanent Forest Service positions from current student employment programs.”

I’m a little puzzled by how making student positions permanent is also “hiring on the highest priority positions.”  A few more sentences to connect the dots would have been helpful.

If it’s the potential retirees who haven’t retired who are responsible, I think that it’s particularly interesting.  My first guess, as a retiree, is that if I were working now I would be a bit spooked by the recent inflation.  For us oldsters who remember inflation, it hasn’t been a thing for so long that we may have forgotten.  It was a wake-up call, for sure.

Like the Chief said, “people not leaving,” in general, is a good thing. And some of us remember encouragements to retire, such as early-outs and bonuses, and some folks being in retirement limbo waiting for these.  I don’t know if that’s still a motivation.

But having that in the back of my mind, (the generations), I ran across a few other related articles.

First, an op-ed from the WaPo.  Title:

A big problem for young workers: 70- and 80-year-olds who won’t retire

With five generations in the workforce, it’s harder for beginners to get hired or promoted.

Paul McCartney and Al Pacino aren’t the only octogenarians with no intention of retiring. Older workers are increasingly postponing retirement, often because they simply don’t want to quit. As a result, the U.S. workforce is now packed with five generations — from the silent generation down to Gen Z.

There are benefits to having so many experienced workers still active, but for younger people, it can be a major hurdle. The career ladder has become crowded at the top, and this dims professional prospects for those at every rung below. Young workers find it harder to launch their careers and to get promoted. The demographic traffic jam also harms societal cohesion by leaving younger groups behind, according to economists Gabriele Guaitoli and Roberto Pancrazi, who study the issue.
The WaPo op-ed has this interesting chart.

Now if I added up all the workers, and calculated the percentage of 70 and older, I’d get 3%. Let’s go back to the headline.  I don’t think the 3% is the “big problem.” It looks to me, in fact, as if the 45 to 64s are the problem. Of course people don’t retire if they like their job, they need the money (to support other, younger, family members?), or they think economic conditions might get iffy (or iffier).

*****************

Another generational story:

Second, from the Denver Post about visitation to the 14ers going down over the past few years.

Fewer people climbed Colorado 14ers in 2023 than in any year since 2015

Last year’s figure was 37% below the pandemic summer of 2020

Athearn said it’s hard to know what is driving the decline, but he has two theories: Slower population growth in Colorado and changing age demographics.

Colorado’s population grew nearly 15% from 2010 to 2020, according to census figures, but the influx of newcomers slowed over the past two years. Also, Athearn suspects that the baby boomers who popularized backpacking and peakbagging are aging out of the fourteener culture.

“My Millennial colleagues — another massive generation — are buying houses, having kids and taking on more work responsibilities,” Athearn wrote in a follow-up email. “That likely translates into less time or money to get out to play regularly. Meanwhile, my son is in that Gen Z age group. While his friends are all pretty athletic and outdoor-oriented, I know many of his peers are not.

“We may be in a period of shifting age booms and busts,” Athearn added, “where those who have been large cohorts of active folks with time, money and health to be out climbing peaks are now facing lack of time, money or compliant bodies to do this physically demanding stuff.”

2 thoughts on “The FS Budget Deficit, the Attrition Factor and Generational Change (in Recreation?)”

  1. I tell ya what I’m seeing in the Colorado High Country, in recreation, the FS is determined to promote and restrict dispersed recreation to “designated dispersed” sites. The problem; too few of these dispersed sites are being planned for, and the developed rec sites are opening late (Memorial Day) and closing early (Labor Day). Where are people to go?

    Does this response miss the subject of Sharon’s pst? No! These recreation positions are not deemed “essential” because they do not contribute directly to targets. PAOTs are just like the sunrises, they’ll happen anyway! And, from what I’m seeing (and has always been the case), positions being vacant puts more demand on those still working within their position description, but making those employees do two – or three jobs!

    I don’t but what’s being told by the WO. Either someone’s is not coming clean with the whole story or the disconnect between the WO and field is an ever deepening chasm!

    Also, it looks like the spread of employees, broken out by age, is pretty consistent to where it should be. Student hires, my be-hind!

    Reply
    • I agree – there is a mismatch between what the Gov Exec article says and what is happening on the ground. This is more than just “not as many people retiring as expected”. When one region just announced that none of their temporary (1039 hour positions) will be working on October 1st, regardless of funding source, and another region has said that permanent seasonals will not have their minimum tours extended, regardless of funding source. There’s a lot more going on than retirements. And, sigh, people are suddenly bringing up “efficiency” and “working smarter” again when we all know how that worked (it didn’t) before.

      Reply

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