Wildfire response to changing daily temperature extremes in California’s Sierra Nevada

Here’s an open-access paper in which the authors find that:

Solely considering changes in summer daily temperatures from climate model projections, we estimate that by the 2040s, fire number will increase by 51 ± 32%, and burned area will increase by 59 ± 33%. These trends highlight the threat posed to fire management by hotter and drier summers.

Other factors are at play, too, of course. But if this doesn’t make the case for fuels reduction and other work that will make forests and communities more resilient, what will?

3 thoughts on “Wildfire response to changing daily temperature extremes in California’s Sierra Nevada”

  1. What’s causing this tremendous increase in summer daily temperatures? Is it climate change? How is an activity that emits a huge amount of carbon and makes forests hotter, drier, and windier the correct course of action? Is there much evidence that logging across the landscape makes “communities more resilient?” Is there much evidence that focusing efforts within the Home Ignition Zone makes communities more resilient to wildfire? Does the increase in summer daily temperatures have an impact on other non-forested ecosystems? How does logging play a role in protecting communities in non-forested ecosystems? Would these types of communities benefit from a focus within the Home Ignition Zone?

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    • “How is an activity that emits a huge amount of carbon and makes forests hotter, drier, and windier the correct course of action?”

      It has not been proven that such practices make forests hotter, drier and windier, outside of the NRV. Larger and cooler fires were the norm in pre-European times, when many forests were much less dense (as reported by Lewis and Clark, and others). Forests survived those kinds of fires, especially where fire-resistant pines grow.

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