21st Century Problems, 21st Century Tactics, OR The Timber Wars Are So Over

In lodgepole country.. this quote from Andrew King

“This facility is not a power plant,” King said. “It’s all about forest health, and energy is the byproduct.”

Discussions of a biomass energy plant in Vail in this article.

Another interesting story about the Ocala.. are these the kind of 21st Century National Forest issues that were pretty much unimagined when NFMA was passed?

Reading these two stories made me think 1) are forests across the country so different and dealing with such different issues that planning requirements will always poorly fit someone, and 2) to what extent are we still stuck in a veg-o-centric view of what the issues and problems are; have we really thought about planning for social and economic problems and needs of the future?

Why the Forest Service Can’t Get Plans Done

Perhaps the greatest challenge in the development of a new Forest Service planning rule is the need to reduce the length and cost of forest planning processes.  The salary costs of an interdisciplinary planning team can easily run $100,000 per month, or over $1 million per year.  Planning processes can easily run five, six, seven or more years, so total salary costs can approach $10 million. 

Except for the Beaverhead-Deerlodge plan in Montana, and the smaller National Forests in the east, no plan revisions have been completed in the last four years.  The problem occured even with new planning rules in 2005 and 2008 which were intended to simplify the planning process.  There are currently 70 forest and grassland plan revisions nationwide that are overdue.

The need for a new planning rule to reduce complexity has been discussed previously on this blog.  The Notice of Intent for a new rule last December described the problems that lengthy planning processes can create for the public:

“One challenge the Agency has faced with regard to public participation is that plans can at times take 8–10 years to revise, a timeframe that is too long to sustain a true collaborative effort and use the most up-to-date science and management thinking.”

Perhaps the root of what’s going on is the “wicked problem” posed by the National Forest Management Act (NFMA), as earlier discussed on this blog and in the excellent review by George Mason University of the process for the Sierra Nevada plan amendments.  The wicked problem is evident through the lack of consensus about multiple use management.  Shortly after NFMA was passed, commentors saw that it was an impossible task and should be repealed.  Unfortunately, NFMA isn’t going away, which led to a proposal earlier on this blog to at least limit any new regulatory requirements to the minimum required by the Act.   As early as a 1990 Critique of Forest Planning, there have been calls to simplify the planning regulations.  This was noted in the December NOI for a new rule:

“The Critique found that the 1982 planning rule process was very complex; had significant costs, was lengthy, and was cumbersome for public input. The recommendations in the Critique and the Agency’s experiences with planning led to the Agency issuing an advance notice of proposed rulemaking for new regulations in 1991, and two proposed rules, in 1995 and 1999. After working with a committee of scientists, the Department issued the 2000 rule to revise the 1982 regulations. The 2000 revision of the planning rule described a new framework for NFS planning; made sustainability the foundation for NFS planning and management; required the consideration of the best available science during the planning process, and set forth requirements for implementation, monitoring, evaluation, amendment, and revision of land and resource management plans. However, a review in the spring of 2001 found that the 2000 rule was costly, complex, and procedurally burdensome. The results of the review led the Department to issue a new planning rule in 2005, and a revised version again in 2008…”

Meanwhile, planners are forging ahead.  There are 21 forest plan revisions continuing using the existing regulations. 

To understand why plans are expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to look at the process.  There are five major cost centers in a Forest Planning process:  assessments, collaboration, environmental documentation, reviews, and objection/appeals.  (Often, the actual writing of a plan is a relatively small task compared to these other five.)  Any one of these five cost centers can create delays in the timeline and additional costs. 

The unfortunate problem with delays is that it extends the window in which a planning effort may be subject to new policies, directives, requirements, or political considerations.  Thus, the process itself can spiral, and a three month delay can become a one year delay to meet a new initative.  Recent examples of delays to forest plans include emerging climate change considerations, new guidance on restoration, and changes to energy policies.

The need to simplify the planning process was discussed last week at a meeting of Forest Service planners in Salt Lake City.  The planners recognized that management of the five cost centers is critical.  One planner said that it takes “wisdom and courage” which is not often rewarded.  Is there a point where more collaboration will no longer be effective?  Do we have the courage to make a decision without certain information?  It requires line officer engagement, to let future Regional Office and Washington Office reviewers know what is going on before the reviews.  It may require saying “no” to 11th hour changes to the plan.  It requires a set timeline, notifying the public, and sticking to the timeline.  It requires internal and external communication across all levels of the organization, to let people know ahead of time when they will be needed.  Regional and Washington Office reviewers need to be efficient, and give Forest planners more leeway.  There needs to be transparency with the public so they can see what is going on and how and when they can have input.  The Forest Service Manual and Handbook can cause confusion, and must be streamlined.   Instead, it’s important to follow the concepts of “organizational learning” discussed earlier on this blog.

Unfortunately, most or all of these managerial solutions have been tried in the past with mixed results.  Perhaps we are expecting too much from forest planning.  For instance, effective stakeholder collaboration can take years to build.  It might be easier to work on partnerships on specific projects, and build collaborative capacity prior to beginning any forest planning process. 

Until we recognize the true limitations of planning, it cannot become what it truly needs to be.  At it’s best planning can clarify goals, set priorities, empower organizational learning, and establish relationships.  But those things can’t happen if plans never get done.

New USDA Plan Sets Forest Restoration, Climate, Water, Fire Objectives

National Forests and “private working lands” are prominently featured in the new U.S. Department of Agriculture five-year strategic plan released last week.  The plan contains strategic objectives for National Forests to restore ecosystems and watersheds on both private and public lands.  It also contains objectives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase carbon sequestration, and develop climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for National Forests. 

One of the four strategic goals for the Department of Agriculture (besides assistance to rural communities, promoting agriculture production, and nutritious food for kids) is goal #2: “Ensure our National Forests and private working lands are conserved, restored, and made more resilient to climate change, while enhancing our water resources.” 

The plan calls for a collaborative “all lands” approach to bring public and private owners together across landscapes and ecosystems.  “Private working lands” are defined to include farms, ranches, grasslands, private forest lands, and retired cropland.  The plan is intended to coordinate National Forest System programs with other USDA programs for private lands. 

Restoration of watershed and forest health is intended to be a core management objective of the National Forests and Grasslands.  Objective 2.1 is to “restore and conserve the Nation’s forests, farms, ranches and grasslands.”  The plan calls for a 13% increase in forest lands that are restored or enhanced each year.

Objective 2.2 calls for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change.  It sets an 8% increase in carbon sequestration on U.S. lands and an 8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector.  All National Forests must have a climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy.

Objective 2.3 calls for protection and enhancement of water resources.  It calls for an increase in National Forest System (NFS) watersheds at or near natural conditions from 58 million acres (30 percent of NFS lands) to 62 million acres (32 percent of NFS lands).   Acres of restored wetlands would increase from 2.1 million acres per year to 2.3 million acres per year.  There would be an $0.5 billion increase in flood prevention and water supply projects.  Nine million acres of high impact targeted practices would be implemented to accelerate the protection of clean, abundant water resources.

Objective 2.4 calls for a reduction of the risk of catastropic wildfire and restoring fire to its appropriate place on the landscape.  It sets a desired condition within the natural (historical) range of variability of vegetation characteristics, increasing the cumulative number of acres from 58.5 million to 61.5 million acres.  It calls for an increase from 10,000 to 18,000 communities with reduced risk from catastropic wildfire, and an increase from 41 percent to 55 percent of acres in Wildland-Urban Interface that have been treated.

21 Forest Service Plans Now Being Revised

Three more forest plan revision efforts now have funding and can be restarted, bringing the total to 21 plans being revised under the existing 1982 Forest Service land management planning rule procedures.  These efforts had previously been stopped when the 2008 planning rule was enjoined.  The announcement came at a Forest Service planners meeting last week.   The additional forest planning efforts that can now be restarted include the Shoshone Forest Plan (Wyoming, Region 2); Tonto Forest Plan (Arizona, Region 3); and Sequoia Forest Plan (California, Region 5).  The exact timing of restarting the processes will vary, since forest planning teams will need to be reassembled and the specifics of the planning processes will need to be planned.

Here is the current list of Forest Plan Revisions that may proceed under the 1982 rule.

Region 1:  Kootenai (Montana) and Idaho-Panhandle NFs (Idaho) (one revision efforts for both forests) 

 Region 2:  San Juan NF (Colorado), Shoshone NF (Wyoming)

 Region 3:  Coronado, Apache-Sitgreaves, Kaibab, Prescott, Coconino and Tonto NFs (Arizona); Cibola National Grassland (New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas)

 Region 5:  Lake Tahoe Basin Mgmt Unit (California/Nevada), Sequoia NF (California)

 Region 6:  Malheur, Umatilla and Wallowa-Whitman (Oregon – one revision effort for the three forests), Colville and Okanogan/Wenatchee NFs (Washington – one revision effort for the two plans)

 Region 8:  NFs in Mississippi, Uwharrie NF (North Carolina) and George Washington NFs (Virginia – 2nd round of LMP Revision)

There are 15 other forest plan revision efforts that have not been restarted, and some were shut down last year because of a lack of funding, partially due to the costs of preparing a new planning rule.  (Region 1: Lolo, Bitteroot, Flathead, Clearwater, Nez Perce; Region 2: Cimarron-Comanche, Pike-San Isabel, GMUG; Region 4: Dixie and Fishlake, Manti-La Sal, Ashley, Humboldt-Toiyabe, Bridger-Teton; Region 5: Modoc; and Region 6: Fremont-Winema.)

There are also 33 Forest Plan revision efforts that are overdue and have never been started.  11 of these are in California, 11 more are in the Pacific Northwest, 5 are in New Mexico, and 4 are in Montana. 

A new planning rule is anticipated in 2011, and many of these planning efforts may follow the new procedures.

Forest Service Planners Meeting This Week about Ongoing Plan Revisions

Although a new Forest Service planning rule is being developed, 18 plan revisions across the country are continuing under 1982 planning rule procedures.  Some of these plans were being developed under the 2008 rule that was enjoined last year and they are now being repackaged to follow the earlier rule.  Another group of planning efforts in Arizona, and one second round plan revision in Virginia, are now just beginning.  If more funding is available, other plan revision efforts around the country might restart, although it may be difficult where planning teams were disbanded. 

Regional Forest Service Planners are meeting in Salt Lake City this week to discuss ways to improve these ongoing planning processes.  Issues that planners are facing include:

  • What is the conceptual framework for an Environmental Impact Statement that accompanies a plan revision?
  • How should alternatives be developed?  Prior to writing a draft EIS, can a preferred alternative be developed in iterative steps?  (This is sometimes called a “rolling alternative”)
  • How should roadless areas and special areas be analyzed in a plan revision?
  • What exactly are the effects of a forest plan, and how should they be analyzed?
  • What climate change information should be included in an EIS and plan?
  • What information about species should be included in the effects analysis?
  • What level of economic analysis will satisfy the 1982 rule requirements?
  • What are the best approaches for getting the best science used in the revision?
  • What analysis models are being used and what is working well?

The 18 plan revision efforts that are using the procedures of the 1982 planning rule are:

Region 1:  Kootenai (Montana) and Idaho-Panhandle NFs (Idaho) (one revision efforts for both forests) 

 Region 2:  San Juan NF (Colorado)

 Region 3:  Coronado, Apache-Sitgreaves, Kaibab, Prescott and Coconino NFs (Arizona); Cibola National Grassland (New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas)

 Region 5:  Lake Tahoe Basin Mgmt Unit (California)

 Region 6:  Malheur, Umatilla and Wallowa-Whitman (Oregon – one revision effort for the three forests), Colville and Okanogan/Wenatchee NFs (Washington – one revision effort for the two plans)

 Region 8:  NFs in Mississippi, Uwharrie NF (North Carolina) and George Washington NFs (Virginia – 2nd round of LMP Revision)

Rethinking Forest Planning – Guest Post from Mark Squillace

Mark Squillace is a law professor and the Director of the Natural Resources Law Center at the University of Colorado Law School. Some of his views on the process-related issues surrounding the current round of forest planning are set out in a post titled Engaging the Public in the Latest Round of Rulemaking on Forest Planning on the Red Lodge Clearinghouse blog.

After two days of intense discussion about the forest planning process at the May 11-12, 2010 workshop in Rockville, Maryland, I’d like to offer these observations while they are fresh in my mind. First, kudos to the Forest Service and the Meridian Institute for establishing such an open and effective process for engaging the public. I have written more specifically about the process on the Red Lodge Clearinghouse website and those comments can be found here. In this post, I would like to suggest a few principles that I believe should govern the rulemaking process for forest planning and a few ideas for establishing a process that reflects those principles.

First and foremost, the Forest Service must not lose sight of the fact that the central problem with the current framework for forest planning is that it is too complex. As a result of this complexity, plans often take many years to develop, and their very complexity invites appeals and litigation. Let’s not ask too much of our forest plans. They should offer a vision for the future management and use of discrete areas and not much more. They should be simple enough that they can be completed within a year – two at the very outside. They should be relatively short – no more than 150 pages, and they should be accessible to the general public so that the general public can meaningfully participate in the planning process. Plans are likely to be most accessible if the alternatives that are being considered can largely be understood by looking at series of maps reflecting the alternative visions for forest management.

The complexity contained in most of our current plans relates largely to the fact that the Forest Service has historically used the plans to establish detailed standards and guidelines for managing particular forest resources. My sense is that this largely traces back to the Forest Service’s belief back in the early 1980’s that forest plans developed under the 1982 rules could essentially govern all future decisions on the forest, at least until a new forest plan was developed. I think we know now that this model does not work. Yet the Forest Service still seems to cling to the belief that more complex forest plans will make project level decisions easier. If they stepped back and thought about this they would surely realize that more complex plans do not make anything easier.

This leads to my recommendation that the planning rules should establish a process for “tiered planning.” Tiered planning borrows a concept from NEPA. Under a tiered planning regime the Forest Service would first develop a large scale, “bird’s eye” vision for the forest that would meet the basic legal requirements of NFMA for land and resource management plans. This would involve a NEPA process that considers various alternative visions for a forest, before a final vision is chosen. Among the decisions to be made at this large scale level would be what resources on that particular forest required separate resource specific plans. The large scale plan would guide the Forest Service in the development of these sub-level, tiered (and integrated) plans for the particular resources identified during the land use planning process. These tiered resource-specific plans would be accompanied by separate NEPA processes and separate opportunities for review. Different forests would need different resource plans. Project level decisions that relate to particular resources studied in a sublevel plan would then fall under a third tier, but since not all forest resources would necessarily require a sub-level plan, some project level proposals might simply flow from the large scale plan itself.

Breaking down plans into component parts, as the proposed tiering process would do, will not necessarily lead to less work for the Forest Service up front. But it will allow the basic plan – the vision document – to be developed more easily and more quickly, and it will allow conflicts and controversies to be better isolated to particular resources While tiered planning might be criticized for failing to promote sufficient integration of resource-specific assessments with land use decisions as required by NFMA, the Forest Service can address this problem simply by adhering to the basic principles of tiering articulated in the Council on Environmental Quality rules implementing NEPA. In particular, those rules describe “tiering” as appropriate when “it helps the …agency focus on issues that are ripe” and “exclude[s] from consideration issues … not yet ripe.” 40 CFR 1508.28(b). By divorcing the planning choices from the choices relating to specific resources, the Forest Service can put off consideration of those resource specific issues until the agency is ready to consider whether and how specific resources should be used.

Another great advantage of tiered planning is its potential for engaging the public in a more meaningful way. Tiered planning can achieve this goal because it allows interested parties to be involved at whatever level of detail they desire. Those most interest in the particular type of land uses that are going to be allowed on particular tracts of lands (or perhaps over the entire forest landscape) can participate only on the land use level decisions, with some confidence that the choices made during this large scale planning process will be honored as sub-level decisions are made. Those interested in the development, use, or management of particular forest resources can focus their attention on particular resource plans or project level decisions involving those resources and those lands where particular resources are authorized for use.

I want to conclude with one general observation about the current process. Even as I applaud the Forest Service for initiating this ambitious exercise in civic engagement, the agency should recognize that one of the risks associated with this process is that it invites even greater complexity in planning. The natural tendency of participants asked to consider ways to improve forest plans is to suggest additional requirements that might be imposed on forest planners. For all of the reasons expressed above, making forest plans more complex than they already are would be a huge mistake, even if, in the abstract, we might agree on an idea for further improving forest plans. A great example of this comes from the workshop and concerns the request to participants that they consider “restoration and resiliency” as one of six issues for forest plans. Understandably, most people think that restoration of degraded forest resources and managing forest resources to promote resiliency are generally good things. I don’t disagree. But restoration and resiliency cannot and should not be treated as ends in themselves. Indeed, it is generally accepted that restoration of degraded lands to their original condition is probably not possible, and maybe not even desirable. More importantly, restoration and resiliency should be seen for what they are – tools that might (or might not) help to achieve the goals and objectives established in a forest plan.

The elusive goal of finding a better way to do forest planning will only be achieved if we come to grips with the fundamental problem associated with the current process. It’s too complex. We need to rethink forest planning in ways that will allow forest plans to be concise, accessible to the general public, and developed and implemented within a reasonable period of time. I appreciate the fact that it won’t be easy. But I nonetheless believe that it can be done.

Next Week: Land Law Review Conference

Next week is the summer June 2-4, 2010 Martz Summer Conference 2010
The Past, Present, and Future of Our Public Lands.
University of Colorado Law School
It sounds like John Rupe, Martin and I will all be there. Martin is the moderator of the timber session, and Rick Cables is speaking about Forest Service planning. Scott Fitzwilliams, the White River Forest Supervisor, is speaking on recreation, and Harris Sherman the Undersecretary for Natural Resources is a keynote speaker. With the variety of speakers, I am looking forward to some stimulating discussions to carry forward to this blog.

Question for consideration…

John and I have been talking about using ecosystem services as a broadening of consideration of different uses in forest plans- rather than “desired conditions” talk about desired services provided. Not to quantify them or cost them out, just to talk about what we want from a piece of ground and how those desires interrelate. John and I think that might be an easier shift from multiple uses to ecosystem services. I think he’s going to post in the near future on some of the problems we’ve experienced with the use of desired conditions.

As to sustainability- great concept, but it is difficult to prove anything is sustainable and balancing the three kinds of sustainability just led to analytical and conceptual problems, in my view.

What do you think about using ecosystem services as a framework for forest planning?
Pros, cons, and watch-outs?

The Hartwell Paper and A New Forest Planning Rule

For those of you who aren’t familiar with this paper, it was a recent effort to figure out if another approach to climate policy could be more successful.

Here is quote from Mike Hulme in this essay on the Hartwell paper .

To move forward, we believe a startling proposition must be understood and accepted. It is not possible to have a “climate policy” that has emissions reduction as the all-encompassing and driving goal.

We advocate inverting and fragmenting the conventional approach: accepting that taming climate change will only be achieved successfully as a benefit contingent upon other goals that are politically attractive and relentlessly pragmatic. Without a fundamental re-framing of the issue, new mandates will not be granted for any fresh courses of action, even good ones.

The paper’s first primary goal focuses on access; to ensure that the basic needs, especially the energy demands, of the world’s growing population are adequately met.

The second is a sustainability goal; to ensure that we develop in a manner that balances social, economic and ecological goals.

Third is a resilience goal; to ensure that our societies are adequately equipped to withstand the risks and dangers that come from all the vagaries of climate, whatever their cause.

Most regular readers of this blog will know that my approach to climate change for public lands is basically:
1. Do all the things we know we should have been doing (monitor and adapt in a transparent disciplined way)
2. Preferentially protect the fundamentals, especially water and air. There is no correct or incorrect composition of plants and animals, now or in the future.
3. Connect landscapes through riparian and other corridors.
4. Use land trades to decrease fragmentation of public lands and open areas to solar or wind development.
5. Develop sustainable biomass industries where needed to conduct fuels treatment or for ecological resilience.

I am also a big fan of Trout Unlimited’s “protect, reconnect and restore” as described in their “Healing Troubled Waters” document here.

So here’s the question- think about Hulme’s concepts, my concepts, TU’s concepts and your own concepts of what to do about climate change… what is the public lands piece to you? And what, if any of that should fit into a planning rule?

Wanted: New Planning Paradigm

A guest post by Lynn Jungwirth

Clearly modern forest plans must have a restoration plan embedded in them. We’ve been struggling here lately with trying to figure out “how much is enough”. Currently “cumulative effect” means that you figure out where the threshold is for negative impact….how many roaded acre equivalents can happen before you have tipped the watershed into an unacceptable trajectory. But if we are going to be planning for restoration and maintenance of ecosystem function, we do not have an equivalent cumulative effect analysis for when you reach a threshold which means the system is on a good trajectory and can take care of itself, or is at least adequately repaired or resilient in the face of projected climate change.

How could a forest planning rule help us make that investigation?

I’m also pretty concerned that many of these place-based approaches in legislation are sort of just running over the forest planning process and again splitting the baby . wilderness vs industrial restoration seems so old fashioned. The forests have been run ragged with this either “too much” or “not enough” management approach. The 22nd Century seems to ask more of us. If we are truly going to wrestle with the integration of recreation, silviculture, restoration, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and an “all lands” approach, it seems that what is required in forest plans is going to be very very different than what we have now.

Trigger Itch

As Sharon writes, I have raised the possibility of using “triggers and thresholds” in some sort of adaptive management framework:  Here is the statement I made at last week’s science forum:

 One possible approach to this problem [how to practice adaptive management in the modern regulatory state] is to consider using some type of pre-negotiated commitments in an adaptive management framework.  These enforceable commitments would specify what actions will be taken by the agency if monitoring information shows X or Y.  In other words, some predetermined decisions, or more general courses of action, are built into the adaptive framework from the beginning (i.e., if this, then what).  Not every possible scenario can be prefigured of course, but having some thresholds or trigger mechanisms built into an adaptive framework might alleviate concerns about the amount of discretion ostensibly needed by agencies to plan and manage adaptively.

In retrospect, perhaps it’s wise to stay away from the term “threshold” because of its scientific usage and debate.  But triggers should still be considered by the agency.  I think the approach might work best in particular management situations, especially those that have an implementation monitoring program in place. 

I don’t think the approach is that uncommon actually.  Consider, for example, a report written by Chuck Quimby of USFS on using adaptive management options within a NEPA process focused on grazing (sorry, don’t have a PDF or link).  He discusses how various adaptive management options can be worked into EIS alternatives. 

Or consider various state wolf management plans whereby states commit to so many packs, and if monitoring shows they drop below some predetermined floor, a different suite of managerial requirements kick-in (more conservative wolf management). 

And to show that such an approach can cut in multiple directions consider the “adaptive timber management strategy” as used by the Tongass NF.  That strategy basically sets various triggers regarding timber harvesting and industrial development in SE Alaska.  If particular objectives are met, then additional roadless areas are opened for more harvesting.  This approach, if I recall correctly, was basically used by the Tongass as a way to more strategically open roadless lands for harvesting—rather than offering multiple sales in multiple roadless areas.  (Of course, conservationists see this as a complete bastardization of the AM approach, but it does demonstrate how adaptive management needs a purpose—it’s a means to an end—and that end needs to be defined by using NEPA). 

The approach could also be used in some restoration plan.  The USFS chooses a plan alternative (using NEPA) that emphasizes restoration.  Within that alternative are embedded a number of adaptive management options.  So, for example, if various restoration objectives are met by some date, then the agency will offer additional stewardship contracts in the following locations. 

 And one more hypothetical:  The USFS chooses a travel management alternative that connects two existing routes for OHV use.  Embedded within that alternative is an adaptive management option:  if an area adjacent to the connected route becomes illegally used and degraded, the new connected route shall be discontinued and decommissioned. 

 Sharon is right, however, because there will be lots of debate about where these trigger points are set.  (This has been a big issue in oil and gas planning and impacts to Grouse in Wyoming).  I imagine in most cases they will simply be politically negotiated, and in others scientists will be given a larger role to play (if used in the wildlife context). 

Martin Nie