National Technology and Development Program Handout: Plus UAS For Hydrology Video

I didn’t see the cool stuff about Chestnut on the NTDC website, so below is the handout we received at our field tour last week. I also thought the drone applications for bridge inspection and hydrology were very cool and here’s a video of the presentation we received. Apologoies as always for the quality, I just wanted people who couldn’t be there to be able to see some of the field trour. If you’re not interested in bridges but are interested in hydrology, go to 3:32.

And here’s info on the NTDP program:

 

FS Chunk of USDA Shutdown Guidance in Toto

Thanks to Anonymous for sending this! It seems like a key clause is :

“Management and maintenance of National Forest System lands for their sustained safety and use, including agency contract and permitted activities and public activities that do not
require consistent employee oversight.”

I also liked that they called out pack and saddle stock.. “Protection of Federal lands, infrastructure to ensure health and safety of the public such as
buildings, waterways, equipment and other property including pack and saddle stock and investments owned by the United States when the suspension of such activities would
cause an imminent threat to human life and property.”

Although “property” probably covers it.  Hopefully seed and seedlings are covered under “property” as well.

More Forest Service Shutdown Info from The Hotshot Wakeup

It seems that The Hotshot Wakeup has the info that was sent out, so I will copy excerpts below. I don’t feel comfortable copying the whole thing. Please go to his link for the entire info and donate, if you can, to his work.  What seems new to me compared to previous shutdowns is that timber sales are seen to be essential, but I don’t really know since I didn’t pay attention to those who were not furloughed, as I was always furloughed.

When it comes to fuel treatments, we know that some are carried out via timber sales, some by other contracts and various other authorities, and some by grantees.  My understanding is that when employees are furloughed they will be paid back, but when contractors have to stop, they are not paid back. And if the contract is administered via a grant, does it continue to go forward?  Are grantees and their employees themselves affected?  If you know the answer, please let us know in the comments.

Total number of agency employees expected to be on board before implementation of the plan: 32,390

I had heard that numbers were down about about 5K from early outs and VERA. So I decided to try looking on the OPM site, which conceivably I read incorrectly so would appreciate anyone double-checking. It’s not the easiest to navigate (at least for me). BTW, the OPM site doesn’t have the weird banner either.

FS Employee Numbers from OPM website  
Sept 2020 36,748
Sept 2021 35,779
Sept 2022 35,797
Sept 2023 37,941
Sept 2024 39,285

But that doesn’t add up either..based on just looking at 39285 and 32,390 it seems more like 7000- ish down since Sept 2024, so I’m sure we’re missing something about how employment numbers are calculated.  It sure would be nice to see a chart of  employees by year, by temporary and permanent, and by fire and non-fire.  Sadly my previous info sources have dried up.  More generally, it would be nice if this Admin would round up some folks to give input on what a Forest Service Dashboard might look like. Anyway, back to Tim’s post..

Total number of agency employees expected to be furloughed under the plan (unduplicated count): 12,744

 

The plan then gets into the specifics of what positions will be retained:

 

Total number of employees to be retained under the plan for each of the following categories: (may include duplicated counts)

(Cat. 1) Compensation is financed by a resource other than annual appropriations: 3,569

(Cat. 2) Necessary to perform activities expressly authorized by law: 0

(Cat. 3) Necessary to perform activities necessarily implied by law: 433

(Cat. 4) Necessary to the discharge of the President’s constitutional duties and powers: 0

(Cat. 5) Necessary to protect life and property: 15,644

 

Next, we see what those positions are and a description of the legal basis for retaining them:

 

Brief summary of significant agency activities that will continue during a lapse. Also include the legal basis for retaining categories of employees who will be carrying out these activities.

Category 1: Employees already financed from other available funds will continue to work as deemed appropriate to support life and property. This includes employees financed by:

• Job Corps (transfer funds from Department of Labor).

• Permanent and trust fund accounts (mandatory appropriations).

• Cost recovery funds (mandatory appropriations and reimbursable funding)

• Supplemental and Emergency Supplemental Funding (GAOA, IIJA, IRA, Disaster).

Category 3: Business functions necessary to support continuing work and the exempt and excepted employees.

Category 5: This includes but is not limited to:

• Responding and preparing for wildland fires 🚨

• Law Enforcement

• Emergency and Natural Disasters Response or Preparation and defense preparedness

• Implementation of Executive Order (EO) 14225, Immediate Expansion of American Timber Production to increase domestic timber production to protect our national and economic security.

• Protection of Federal lands, infrastructure to ensure health and safety of the public such as buildings, waterways, equipment and other property including pack and saddle stock and investments owned by the United States when the suspension of such activities would cause an imminent threat to human life and property.

• Contracts in support of cyber security and infrastructure operations to support key positions and essential personnel.

• Management and maintenance of National Forest System lands for their sustained safety and use, including agency contract and permitted activities and public activities that do not require consistent employee oversight.

• Protection of studies where lack of continuation measurements or maintenance would destroy or endanger validity of research findings.

• Agency leadership to ensure alignment of activities.

Weird Partisan Banner on Some FS Websites: Apparently It’s a USDA Thing

I was trying to find some things on the FS website about the amazing Missoula Technology and Development Center.. we had an excellent field tour at the Retirees’ Reunion last week.  But I ran across this weirdly partisan banner.. and checked with DOE’s and NIH’s websites .. no banners there. So it seems to be a USDA thing (I checked ARS, ERS, and Rural Development, and sure enough they all have it) , and hopefully will go away soon.

There’s an interesting story in OregonLive

Clearly it’s not something that was the FS’s idea, even though the headline of the article is “Message on U.S. Forest Service websites blamed ‘Radical Left Democrats’ amid government shutdown.”

Anyway, when I searched on Duck Duck Go searching for the Missoula Technology and Development Center, it gave me this.. which I think it out of date. This one also seems out of date and maybe is not connected to the current website.  Which is not related to the banner question, but does relate to finding FS material.

The below link is  about the National Technology and Development Program is connected to the current website (I think) but doesn’t have the banner.

This one doesn’t have the banner either..  they are one of the groups at MTDC.

News Roundup: Shutdown? Fire Service Position Advertised, Public Lands Rule Rescission

1.  Government Shutdown Info for Employees Available from NAFSR

There’s six pages of good info there.. I don’t ever remember getting any info prior to shutdowns when I was an employee, so thanks to them for rounding this up!

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2.  Fire Service Lead SES Position Advertised

Responsibilities include:

1. Will lead and exercise programmatic authority over all wildland fire management activities across the Department of the Interior (DOI), including workforce development, technology investments, communications, and administrative support, ensuring alignment with departmental mission, priorities, and policies.

2. Will provide executive coordination and oversight of structural fire management programs, ensuring effective integration and collaboration with the National Park Service, Bureau of Reclamation, and other stakeholders to meet DOI structural fire needs.

3. Will represent the Department on wildland fire issues before Congress, OMB, and the Executive Office of the President, including legislative review, testimony preparation, and participation in hearings, while ensuring compliance with evolving federal mandates.

4. Will oversee all aspects of the Wildland Fire Management Account, including budget development, prioritization, and execution, in coordination with DOI bureaus, the USDA Forest Service, and other federal partners.

5. Will serve as the Department’s lead for Emergency Support Function 4 (Firefighting) under the National Response Framework, while also managing international fire program activities and providing executive support for interagency aviation policy and operations.

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3.  Least Surprising Thing Ever..

The Department of Interior is getting rid of the Public Lands Rule, which folks as varied as the Montana Governor and the Sierra Club were against.  My point (and some BLM retirees’) was that they were already doing this kind of work, and the sellers of the Rule never clarified why they felt it was needed, other than reams of verbiage (e.g., “place conservation on the same footing” and so on). This has caused much consternation (with accompanying verbiage) among some in the ENGO community, for example NWF:

Rescission of Public Lands Rule Threatens Wildlife, Ranching, Hunting, Rural Communities

Funny how those communities didn’t agree with NWFs take…

The Department’s side of the story is located in the Federal Register notice and public comment is being taken.

I took a look at some of the comments.. here’s one..

The Rule also gave managers and the courts a clear, defensible framework. By grounding conservation decisions in statute, it actually reduced uncertainty and litigation risk. Strip that away, and you invite more lawsuits, more gridlock, and more confusion about what the law requires.

I don’t think a reg can, in and of itself, “ground something in a statute” in fact, my experience is that if you have a rule that some think goes too far, it gets litigated itself.

I don’t think the previous Admin ever successfully made the case for why it was needed.

Andy Kerr, a noted observer of federal lands issues,  was not a fan, for different reasons. He didn’t think it did anything. I received an email about this, but couldn’t find a link to it on his website (it’s number 275 in the email).  But here’s a quote

The mainstream media repeated the Bidenista spin in its April 2024 announcement of “a sweeping new public lands rule that places conservation and restoration of public lands on equal footing with energy development and mining” (Greenwire), a “rule that puts conservation, recreation and renewable energy development on equal footing with resource extraction” (Washington Post). The spin continued in the September 2025 announcement of the new Trump proposal in the New York Times, which described the Biden rule as one that “sought to put conservation on equal footing with development for the first time since the Bureau of Land Management was established in 1946.”

In fact, the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (FLPMA) put conservation on a footing above that of development. It’s just that all administrations since then have failed to do so. While the Biden rule provided for new designations and practices to conserve and restore BLM lands, in every case it also provided loopholes large enough to drive bulldozers, bovines, pipelines, and power lines through with ease. The existing special interests of livestock grazing, logging, mining, and the like would not have been materially affected by the Biden rule, as the specific language specifically protected existing harmful special interests. And let’s not forget, the improvement opportunities provided in the rule were dependent on the agency field managers actually deciding to apply them on the ground.

Since the Biden BLM regulation is effectively a dead(ly) letter, I won’t detail its multiple sins. I did detail the proposed sins of the draft Biden BLM rule in an earlier Public Lands Blog post.

[See Public Lands Blog post “The BLM’s Proposed ‘Conservation’ Rule: Open for Comments” (2023)]

(The final version of the rule was even more sinful.) In the end, the Bidenistas were spinning their final rule not as a “BLM conservation rule” but as a “BLM public lands rule.” They caved not only on substance but also on style.

Then there was the NAC subtext.. and the questions the Public Lands Foundation (retirees) raised.  If Andy says it was “all hat and no cattle”, so to speak ;),  the question remains “why?” Was it just to generate a pleasing (to some) talking point?

Some Chief’s Thoughts from Retirees’ Reunion

As I sat down with my notes from last week, I realized that I am really bad at taking notes.  With any luck, I will hear from someone else who was there if I say something wrong, or left out something the Chief  said that’s important.  Chief Schultz also sat down with Chief Bosworth for a Fireside Chat, which was recorded by the Museum and will be available on their Youtube channel.

You can also hear the Chief on this “Chat with the Chief” from April. He hasn’t done any more of these, and is communicating directly with folks in the field.  But his themes seem consistent. The FS has a mission, it needs to get back to the basics… managing the land, and focus on doing that, and driving organizational change and improvement to focus on that.

As an outsider, it will be hard for him to earn trust and respect, especially when many FS employees and retirees are not supportive of this Admin and assume the worst. Like I say about any Admin, there will be decisions I agree with (including personnel decisions)  and decisions I disagree with, there will be decisions I agree with that turn out badly and decisions I disagree with that turn out well.  That’s the humility that comes with observing them all since the Reagan Admin, and the way the decisions roll out and change through time.

Personally I am a fan of a continuous efforts toward organizational improvement, and remember when that was something both colors of Admin found important (remember Reinventing Government during the Clinton Admin?). His background is managing a state agency, which tends to have less funding and perhaps less bureaucracy, so that could be helpful. It could also lead to great frustration on his part when he runs across “can’t do that”.. OPM, OMB and so on. So we’ll see.

Most of us who have been following this won’t find anything surprising, except that Chief Schultz said was that they plan to get temporaries back next year, which I hadn’t heard before.

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5300 employees have left. (note that this is in the ballpark of the number of employees that were hired in the last few years with IRA and BIL funding). There was a $750 mill deficit (we have heard that number before, but Chief Randy Moore, later at the meeting, said it was only $500 mill, more on that later).

He said he is on the road three weeks out of the month talking to employees.

The reorganization effort started when the funding hole was first discovered, before the election.  He said that FS leadership is at the table providing input on reorganization and there are teams of FS individuals working on various aspects of it, but they need to review the public comment before they come out with anything.

Some options considered included three Regions, and there was a fair amount of dialogue. They identified support the Regions provide, and thought about which could be performed by national service centers (like Content Analysis, or ski area engineering..).  The ideas are not fully baked yet.  It’s a thoughtful process and not going to happen overnight.  The proposed hubs are more for USDA not FS employees, the existing facilities make sense.

The Associate Chief’s (Chris French’s) role is more “hands on” with operational elements like forest plan implementation and the Wildfire Crisis Strategy.

There has been a hiring freeze since August of last year.

Communications:

Comms need to be vetted, he has seen in the last 5-6 months social media for fire and safety has opened up.  There is a coordination effort and clearance to find the best person to talk to the media.  At the same time, his experience is that it’s better to have people talk about the projects they are directly involved with.

Recreation:

Most people know the FS via recreation. As silly as it sounds, clean toilets are key to peoples’ impression, and he pays attention to them.  There was a problem early on with contracts, on his “Rides with Rangers” that came up and they dealt with it.  Recreation is set to grow, we need to work with the public to develop a plan to support recreation and clarify expectations, then execute the plan.

Fire:

They are going to create efficiencies, there will be a Deputy Chief in Fire, and the focus will be on implementing contracting, position classification, pay structure system, and improving payments to the workforce.

He wants to hear from employees about things that frustrate them (processes) and he will try to make things better.

********************

If I missed something or got it wrong, please let me know in the comments.

 

Roadless Impacts on Recreation: Don Amador

I’m at the Retirees’ Reunion in Missoula, so if you are interested in submitting a guest post, this would be a good time to do so.

I heard from a number of people since I posted about Roadless last week.

There are a couple of interesting things worth pointing out and discussing.

While as the Chiefs’ letter pointed out, the initial Roadless Rule was about logging,

The Forest Service would do well to remember that 80 percent of its road budget was cut as a surrogate to stop the agency from building roads in roadless areas and selling old growth. Road maintenance became a major issue and roadless areas took center stage for political, environmental and budgetary reasons. This led to the suspension of road building and subsequent development of the 2001 Roadless Rule”

recreation folks like Don Amador and Patrick McKay re telling us about collateral impacts on recreation. How did that happen?

I have also been hearing from folks that a difficulty is that given the Roadless Rule, districts that want to get things done often don’t go into them for fuel treatment projects  (given a choice) because they know they will encounter disfavor among certain groups and possibly litigation.  That is absolutely rational, given metrics of organizational success.. and at the same time a potential problem

Something that State Rules considered, or put in, was the need for RF approval of certain kinds of projects.  Which some people think is an opportunity for arbitrary and capricious decisions, as in “don’t do it.”  Again, there’s a theme that the 2001 Rule has flexibility, and doesn’t address recreation (it was about timber) and yet seems to have impacts on whether projects are planned, and how recreation is handled.

I think Don Amador has an interesting idea in his comment and op-ed- maybe it’s time to reimagine the recreation elements of Roadless and give it another name. I believe the Backcountry name is similar to one theme in the Idaho Rule.

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PUSH THE ROADLESS RESET BUTTON

Today marks the deadline for submitting initial public scoping comments in a new rulemaking process by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to rescind the 2001 Roadless Rule in an effort to bring clarity on just how our natural, cultural, and recreational resources should be managed in Inventoried Roadless Areas (IRA).

As a motorized recreation lead who participated in many of the “roadless” political, policy, and legal battles (circa 1998-2010), I feel this process could be used as a time for private and public stakeholders to push the reset button on this somewhat contentious issue.

My thoughts today are informed by the past but more importantly guided by my more recent experiences as a participant and/or lead in various recreation or forest health/wildfire collaboratives.

In my view, the Roadless Rule has raised barriers to active management that limit line-officer flexibility when it comes to planning for and/or implementing forest health, fuel reduction, or wildfire mitigation projects.

Also many IRAs have popular designated OHV routes, but that same lack of flexibility in some cases severely limit consideration of designating a new connector trail, constructing a warranted trail reroute, or using a small trail tractor to perform needed route maintenance or construction activities.

I hope this rule-making process finds a way to amend or streamline current regulations or policy to authorize and encourage hybrid multi-objective fuel or wildfire mitigation projects that include a recreation component such as constructing a new trail or reconstructing an old trail within the project footprint to meet visitor needs.

I believe USDA will find both motorized and non-motorized recreation groups in strong support for the use of existing Forest Health Collaboratives that bring diverse stakeholders and partners in local communities together to increase the pace and scale of Forest health, pre/post fire mitigation, and recreation efforts. These groups already consist of representatives from tribes, private timber companies, resource conservation districts, state and local fire agencies, cattle ranchers, conservation groups, hunters, and OHV organizations. Why reinvent the wheel?

Finally, this process might want to consider revising the term IRA to a better descriptive that is more relevant. Since IRAs often contain a meaningful amount of popular roads and trails the stakeholders may want them designated as an official Backcountry area with an “active management” focus.

Let’s hope that all sides can agree that some form of a reset is needed to address current and future needs of these important forest lands.

# # #

Don Amador has been in the trail advocacy and recreation management profession for 35 years. Don is President of Quiet Warrior Racing LLC. Don serves as the Western States Representative for the Motorcycle Industry Council. Don is Past President/CEO and current board member of the Post Wildfire OHV Recovery Alliance. Don is a Co-Founder and Core-Team member on FireScape Mendocino, a forest health collaborative that is part of the National Fire Learning Network. Don served as an AD Driver for the Forest Service North Zone Fire Cache during the 2022, 2023, and 2024 Fire Seasons. Don writes for Dealernews Magazine. Don is a Northern California native and writes from his home in Cottonwood, CA.

Apologies to all.. the below is from Patrick McKay in response to another comment, but provides some context for a long history (including litigation) of whether roadless is intended to be pre-Wilderness and how the two relate.  Due to being in my hotel room somehow I missed explaining that. It’s probably another piece in the puzzle of Roadless as written in the reg, vs. Roadless as carried out in practice.

The Congressional attempts to rein in administrative wilderness designations are the Wilderness Act itself requiring Congress to designate Wilderness, plus every time Congress designates new Wilderness areas with specific boundaries and prohibitions on creating buffer zones or precluding other uses in adjacent areas outside the wilderness because they can be seen or heard inside the Wilderness. Every time an agency closes a cherry stemmed road or boundary road, every time it manages land adjacent to a Wilderness area as some form of “recommended wilderness”, “lands with wilderness characteristics”, “roadless area”, or “semi-primitive non-motorized” ROS zone, it is ignoring the direct intent of Congress and creating de facto administrative expansions of the Wilderness area contrary to Congressional directives.

Regarding the Wilderness Act itself, the legislative history makes it clear it was intended to prohibit all forms of administrative Wilderness designation. Here is something I wrote in my objections to the recommended wilderness areas in the GMUG forest plan that explains it:

The Wilderness Act of 1964 makes it quite clear that new Wilderness areas are supposed to be designated by Congress, not created by administrative agencies. Indeed, the creation of new de facto wilderness areas by administrative agencies was precisely what the Wilderness Act was intended to prevent. As the U.S. District Court for the District of Wyoming explained in State of Wyoming v. United States Department of Agriculture, No. 01-CV-86-B, at *1 (D. Wyo. July 14, 2003) (reversed on other grounds):

“The Wilderness Act declared it the policy of Congress to “secure for the American people of present and future generations the benefits of an enduring resource of wilderness.” 16 U.S.C. § 1131 (a). To effectuate this policy, Congress established the National Wilderness Preservation System (“NWPS”), which would be composed of congressionally designated “wilderness areas.” Id. The Wilderness Act also immediately designated certain areas as wilderness, Id. § 1132(a), and provided the procedure for future designation of wilderness areas, id. § 1132(b). In establishing the NWPS, Congress unambiguously provided that “no Federal lands shall be designated as `wilderness areas’ except as provided for in [the Wilderness Act] or by a subsequent Act.” Id. § 1131(a).
Therefore, Congress has the sole power to create and set aside federally designated wilderness areas pursuant to the Wilderness Act. Parker v. United States, 309 F. Supp. 593, 597 (D. Colo. 1970), aff’d, 448 F.2d 793 (10th Cir. 1971). In fact, the primary purpose of the Wilderness Act was to provide:
“[a] statutory framework for the preservation of wilderness [that] would permit long-range planning and assure that no further administrator could arbitrarily or capriciously either abolish wilderness areas that should be retained or make wholesale designations of additional areas in which use would be limited.”
Id. (quoting H.R. Rep. No. 88-1538). To this end, the Wilderness Act removed the Secretary of Agriculture’s and the Forest Service’s discretion to establish de facto administrative wilderness areas, a practice the executive branch had engaged in for over forty years. Parker,309 F. Supp. at 597, aff’d,448 F.2d at 797. Instead, the Wilderness Act places the ultimate responsibility for wilderness designation on Congress. Id.16 U.S.C. § 1131 (a). In this regard, the Wilderness Act functions as a “proceed slowly order” until Congress — through the democratic process rather than by administrative fiat — can strike the proper balance between multiple uses and preservation. Parker,448 F.2d at 795. This statutory framework necessarily acts as a limitation on agency action. Id. at 797.”

The quote from the Congressional Record in the case above is particularly relevant, as it clearly establishes that the intent of Congress in passing the Wilderness Act was to “assure that no future administrator could arbitrarily or capriciously either abolish wilderness areas that should be retained or make wholesale designation of additional areas in which use would be limited.” H.R. Rep. No. 1538, 88th Cong., 2d Sess., reprinted in 1964 U.S. Code Cong. Ad. News 3615, 3616-17. In other words, Congress intended to entirely remove both the designation and abolition of wilderness-type areas from the purview of administrative agencies like the Forest Service. Such designations and their equivalents were intended to be under the sole jurisdiction of Congress itself.

 

 

NY Times Article: Wildfire Smoke is Due to Climate Change and is Really Bad for People

Thanks for the comments on my Roadless draft!  I have been talking to people offline who have shared other concerns with me.  I will have more to say when I come back from the Retiree Reunion in Missoula next week- I will be off next week.

Historical Perspective on Wildfire Smoke

Speaking of Missoula, I was at some kind of conference (Planning Rule?) in Missoula probably 15-20 years ago, and associates JR and PG and I couldn’t have our brewskis in the beer garden because the smoke was so thick.  But back in the day fire was natural and we had to suck it up, so to speak.

“Let fires burn” article from 2017 (hasn’t aged so well..):

Scientists at the cutting edge of ecological research, Dr. Hanson among them, argue that the century-old American practice of suppressing wildfires has been nothing less than a calamity. They are calling for a new approach that basically involves letting backcountry fires burn across millions of acres.

In principle, the federal government accepted a version of this argument years ago, but in practice, fires are still routinely stamped out across much of the country. To the biologists, that has imperiled the plants and animals — hundreds of them, it turns out — that prefer to live in recently burned forests.

Human lives are at stake, too. Firefighters die, more than a dozen in some years, putting out fires that many scientists think should be allowed to burn. Conversely, a shift toward letting more fires rage is certain to raise fears about public safety in communities bordering forests.

Those pesky inhabitants… what’s wrong with them.. are they anti-science?

Scientists contend that if money were redirected from firefighting into projects like fireproofing homes, those communities could actually be made safer. But the politics of the shift would be difficult, at best.

In retrospect, it’s interesting that that article didn’t mention smoke at all.

But if we go farther back here’s an NYTimes article from 1999, apparently pre-climate change.

”The way the forests have been managed up to now can lead to more catastrophic fires than using a more rational approach,” said Michael Paparian, a Sierra Club representative, according to The Associated Press.

Dave Bischel, president of the California Forestry Association, which represents the timber industry, agreed that the forests needed thinning. But timber companies want the process to include more logging than the environmental groups support.

Environmentalists and loggers say the government should conduct more controlled burns and cutting to clear undergrowth that fuels wildfires. But government officials said the answer would not be simple.

”There’s no magic solution to the condition of the forests,” said Mr. Mathes, the Forest Service spokesman.

***

Yesterday’s Times Piece

So yesterday, the Times moved on to describing (one) study published in Nature, apparently written by at least one USG employee but seemingly not available to us (NIH is working on this problem and the FS already makes its research available.)

The piece has a cool map of predictions for smoke between 2046 and 2055.  I don’t want to rehash Patrick Brown’s critiques, but how can modeling take into account changes in vegetation from previous fires, new wildfire technologies and so on? I guess they would have to make assumptions or not consider them at all. Plus this is probably timed to coincide with policy discussions on the EPA endangerment finding.

I don’t like to be unduly critical.. but  this is one of those.. “we made a great many assumptions about things and the results are really bad” papers.

From the abstract:

When monetized, climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the US 4,5. Our research suggests that the health impacts of climate-driven wildfire smoke could be among the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the US.

As if there weren’t enough assumptions, they had to add in economics (!) and apparently assumed that all wildfires are a consequence of climate change.  Anyway, back to the Times article.

Pollution from fires, intensified by rising temperatures, is on track to become one of America’s deadliest climate disasters.

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Future deaths from wildfire smoke also depend on how humans decide to respond to climate change. The models don’t account for future changes to policies that could make air pollution worse, such as recent proposals to roll back air pollution regulations, or rescind the endangerment finding. On the other hand, they also do not anticipate ones that might mitigate wildfires or reduce exposure to smoke.

Strategies such as forest thinning, for example, might lessen the intensity of future blazes. Encouraging people to use air filters and wear masks during smoke events could help lessen resulting health problems, too. Because the data used in the study is based on current policies, Dr. Burke said, that means there’s room for improvement.

“These are projections. They are not what’s going to happen, necessarily,” he said. “But what happens is a choice, and so these don’t have to be an inevitability.”

I bolded the “decide to respond to climate change” because dealing with wildfires has predated and is not a subset of, “dealing with climate change.”  If you or I were building a model, we might want to project fuel treatments, changes in wildfire technology, and we’d need to know the answer to this question that the Forest Service is looking at:

Plus estimate the proportion of prescribed, managed and indigenous fire into the future.  But hey..

Anyway, another way of thinking about it would be  “how can we protect people from wildfire smoke when there’s PF, MF and wild wildfires?”  Which we would have regardless of climate change.

Wildfire and Safety Research at the Forest Service

Below is  a nice summary of projects on Wildfire and Safety that FS R&D developed. Sadly I haven’t figured out how to copy these excellent round-ups with the links intact, but if you’re interested here’s a link to the same info with links that work. The Forest Service also makes all of its research available to the public for free.

What Do You Think? My Draft Comments on Roadless, Final Due Tomorrow

Here is what I came up with, I’d be interested in what everyone thinks., so I can add or take out stuff before I submit. Feel free to use anything in yours.

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I worked directly, hands-on with the Colorado Roadless Rule for over six years, through Democrat and Republican State and Federal Administrations, and so the following comments are the voice of experience:

  1. It makes sense to have a public process to change the Rule rather than remove it. What happened in Alaska? The next Administration just put it back.  For the good of the public, the employees, and the taxpayers, it makes sense to come to a stable solution. That would require a public and transparent process. We can assume it would be litigated but that’s OK. Colorado and Idaho were litigated.  Also I would argue for sticking to a timeframe, and not letting it get away from you in pursuit of agreements that might never happen.
  2. Any other alternatives should be based on specific needs for change.
    1. The first step should be to fix all the maps in a common-sense way. For example, in Colorado we found areas could be mapped to the nearest road or ridgetop, making any management easier.
    2. The second step is removing roaded areas from the roadless inventory. The 2001 Rule handled this by calling them “substantially altered” and having different requirements within the Rule.  Just take them out.  In Colorado we found “real unroaded” acres we could add back in.  This also works and could be part of negotiation.
    3. The third step would be a forest- by- forest identification of the need for change, including a public process for comments. The WO could develop a template to collect the information such that all the forest would have to do is prepare a forest specific presentation and provide the link to post comments. It would be cool if the comments could be linked to a map, such that people could also look at the map and see what comments are associated with it.
    4. The fourth step would be for OGC and DOJ attorneys to do a “need for change” highlighting parts of the 2001, Colorado and Idaho that have led to legal difficulties, and provide recommendations for clarifications.
    5. The fifth step would be to round up the national groups – I have mixed feelings about a FACA committee to give advice about general fixes for things like mechanical fuel treatments and other topics that make sense to be approached nationally.  Perhaps it would be better for an NGO to convene a series of meetings with a workgroup of diverse interests, with tentative recommendations and opportunity for public comment on their recommendations at each stage. The problem with FACA committees is that by size, they can’t include the diversity of perspectives of stakeholder groups.  For example, if there’s one FACA position for outfitters, it seems likely that holders of jeep or OHV permits might think differently than whitewater permittees. I’ll also add that some members of the RACNAC, (the previous Roadless Area FACA committee) did not live up to our expectations for contributing to the discussion.

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For TSW Readers:  Folks were chosen for the RACNAC for political reasons, like maybe they represented important groups, I guess.  At the Salt Lake RACNAC meeting, the Colorado folks were sitting behind one member of the RACNAC who was looking at photos of his dog on his laptop and clearly not paying attention to the presentation. But on the positive side, at another meeting in DC, an NGO person spoke who knew not very much, and had apparently been briefed on the plane as to what to say.  FS people had to be polite, but other RACNAC people could and did make the point “we don’t need to be lectured, thank you!” The leadership of RACNAC was outstanding- Ray Vaughan and Dale Harris- but good policy shouldn’t depend on a few key people with relational superpowers, IMHO.

If you’re not familiar with that part of history, this is from a RACNAC meeting on Idaho, note the temp road recommendation, also how small the RACNAC was.

 

Another Talking Point on Roadless.. More Roads, More People, More Fires- Again, Colorado Not So

Glenn brought up another talking point from the Roadless discussion- the four Chiefs’ letter  didn’t address it, but I have seen it in other letters and stories and the FS will probably see it in form letters.

Again, it seems to me that we need to be clear whether we are talking about removing the Rule or updating it.  Because if we are updating, we could clarify the kinds of roads and whether they would be open to the public.  It seems to me after listening to folks for all these years that most people just want continued access to the roads and trails they already have.. note the lawsuit on the PSICC.  The cry is always “don’t shut off our access” not “we need more.”  It’s more “maintain the roads you already have” than “let’s get more roads.”

So.. if you had specific carve-outs for specific kinds of roads… like temp roads for fuel treatments within 1/2 mile of communities or in areas within a CWPP (believe me I have probably spent 1000 hours talking with people about this alone.. different maps of WUI and so on) or a road to access a power line for maintenance that would be closed to the public and funded by the power company..what evidence do we have that these kinds of carve-outs lead to more ignitions? Do we have any specific cases where the changes in the Colorado Rule led to ignitions?

If recreationists don’t want more permanent roads, and timber companies don’t, and the Forest Service certainly doesn’t, who would want them?

Now there could indeed be illegal use of temp roads for fuel treatment projects, but if they are ripped afterwards? Would that be a question of illegal use, or improper gating, or ???

My point is that this is another “talking point that sounds plausible” but, as in so many cases, if you bring the question down to specifics, it opens up an entirely different set of questions for discussion.

1. Are we talking update or removal of 2001? If update, describe worries and add text to reduce them

2. Even if the 2001 Rule were removed, what kinds of roads do people really want (that aren’t the same as Colorado or Idaho)?

3. If a middle path is chosen, with temp roads and more or less private administrative (gated) roads are we worried about illegal use of any roads?

4. All projects require site-specific NEPA.  As I recall, I was selecting trees on Chiloquin District and unbeknownst to me, someone was blocking roads at the same time.  In that country, I was able to drive around the blockage, due to the lay of the land and the vegetation. That isn’t always the case.. would the site-specific NEPA be the place to ensure that the roads would be effectively closed?

Again, it seems that some talking points are about “bad things that might happen.” It seems to me that we have info, with the State Rules, on what actually did happen with exceptions.  Certainly both kinds of information should be noted and considered. Which is not an argument to rescind the Rule, but that’s why I think it’s important to start with…  “I want to keep, update, or get rid of.”

Finally, it seems that many people were interested in the State Rules to the point of litigating them.  But once they were in place, the drama completely decreased.  No one was particularly interested in the projects (other than a certain set of coal mines and some ENGOs).