Blog Transfer Tomorrow

Don’t post anything after noon MT tomorrow because tomorrow is NCFP Moving Day.

When moving is done, I’ll send you a message giving you the new blog address, and we can go about our business.

For convenience and clarity for Virtual Book Club, I started a new WordPress blog just for VBC. Here’s the link http://virtualbookclubforestpolicy.wordpress.com/
Remember this one is not changing over, so you can post on it anytime. The idea is to separate the Book Club from the rest of the goings on on the blog.

Thanks again to Eli for volunteering to move the blog! Donations to help support the fee for hosting ($118 this year) would be appreciated. Also, if anyone wants to recommend plug-ins or widgets, please send in your recommendations.

Thanks, everyone, for your patience. This blog is run by all volunteers, with no funding or administration. The plus side of this “business model” is we don’t spend time having board meetings. filling out financial documents, and asking people for money (tasks many of us don’t like to do). The downside is that things happen as people have the time, skills and interest to do them- that’s why your patience is appreciated.

Fire Fighting is Like Health Care

Suppression Cost

Health care and fire suppression costs have increased in real dollars dramatically during the last 30 years.

U.S. per capita health care expenditures have gone up about 7 fold in real dollars (net of inflation).

The graph above shows that federal wildland fire suppression cost per ignition (in real dollars) has increased 4-fold during the same period (source data can be found here).

At the risk of unduly straining the analogy, the real cost increases in both sectors are likely a sign of underlying “unhealthy” conditions. Too much biomass — obesity & overstocked forests — can lead to inflammation. And of affluence. Too much technology to finance end-of-life care and too much expensive end-of-forest air attack.

Not too many “things” have suffered this magnitude of real cost increases — certainly not wages (flat) nor gasoline (decline).

Virtual Book Club- Moon and the Nautilus Shell-I-Introductions

camp-fire-1

WE HAVE MOVED THIS DISCUSSION TO A NEW BLOG
HERE

To be honest, I’ve never been in a book club before. So this is an adventure. I thought we should start by introducing ourselves and telling our stories or, at least, some stories. One of the great things about Dan’s book is the stories he tells, and what a great story-teller he is. When you tell stories, say Dan’s triggers yours and yours triggers someone else’s and so on. This is a different kind of thing, and much more right-brained, than what we usually do on the blog. Not that we won’t challenge Dan’s knowledge claims, nor each other’s, through this process. But today let’s take a break from all that and listen to each other’s stories.

Why are stories important? This came across my email a while back from Ronna Detrick, who, I think, said it beautifully.

We live in a world of stories. Childhood fairytales shape our dreams and hopes. Family legends, imparted over kitchen table conversation, at reunions, and during road-trips, build our memory and craft our beliefs. Historical narratives inform our understanding of culture, politics, our larger world. Film, music, literature, and poetry mysteriously and continuously speak to our deepest heart – communicating truths we implicitly know and others we long to grasp.

Stories serve the way in which we are able to make sense of our world, our relationships, our behaviors, everything. They are how we speak of our circumstances, our deepest emotions, and our biggest questions; how we create and apply meaning. And they connect us to one another, bridging differences in language and perspective, time and place, past and future.

Most of us acknowledge that it’s less about a particular story and more about story, itself. It is the device, the vehicle, the means through which we express, listen, and even participate in our own life and others’. We admit (and even enjoy) that most stories, when told over and over again, not only shift and morph over time, but take on a life of their own.

“The fish gets a little bigger, the storm gets a little wilder, the love gets a little stronger, our bravery or disappointment gets a little exaggerated in the telling over time. There is creative tension in story. When we hear it, when we read it, when we speak it, when we write it, we filter words through our own experiences and our need for meaning. We shape the tale to reinforce our understanding of how life is. ~ “Christina Baldwin

This is what we love about them. This is why we tell them. This is why we live our lives within them. This is the power of story.

So, in the form of introduction, please say something about yourself and tell us one story about your relationship to the ideas of the balance of nature or systems ecology, and how they developed.

I’ll do a brief example:
I am a forester and plant geneticist/evolutionary biologist; I worked for the Forest Service for 32 years; I am running for Vice President of the Society of American Foresters; and I am a part-time theology student at Iliff.

When I was a freshman at Yale, I took two courses that were key to my future in forestry, and to my understanding of Nature. One was with Alison Richard, called “Primate Population Adaptations”. Another was “Man and the Environment” (no, I am not kidding; this was 1973 and we were one of the first classes after coeducation at Yale College). As I recall, Dr. Richard was the first, last and only female professor I had for the rest of my college career, which ended with a Ph.D. in Genetics in 1982. This experience (and reading gender studies of science) helped me understand the difference between the aspirations of “objective science” and the down and dirty reality of how it’s produced.

If your first framing of empirical, observational science is adaptation and evolution, as in the Primate class, the idea of a steady state is .. well..very odd. Evolution is change. Equilibrium is “not change” or change such that the results are still somehow “contained” in some abstract sense.

Probably the most important class I took in my college career was the next year at UCLA (I had run out of money so had to stay home and work full-time). It was called “History of American Science” and introduced me to the historical conceptions of science.. Like “applied science” was looked down upon because the upper classes focused on “basic” and could afford to study things without direct outcomes. Or the very real, continuing idea of Physics Envy. Having this class early, before most of my scientific training, helped me understand why different disciplines had more power and funding than others. I was able to watch funding for “science fads” flow and ebb across the forest science community and look at how the community and its different populations (disciplines) competed and evolved.

It is odd to me that history and philosophy of science are not required classes for trainee scientists. Also, remember that in those days “environmental science” was not separate. There was just “science,” and you applied it to whatever issue you had.

Much later one of my colleagues said to me “you’re not a conservation geneticist, you’re an exploitation geneticist!” because she disagreed with my ideas of What Should Be Done. But the key historical fact I’m trying to focus on here was that in the 70’s, there was just plain old genetics, silviculture, physiology, entomology, pathology, ecology, wildlife biology, range ecology, hydrology, fish biology, etc. At least that’s my memory.

Tell us a little about yourself, and what’s your story?

Fires on Science Friday- Stephen Pyne and Chris Topik

A fire team lights a restoration burn on the Dahms Tract, Platte River and Wood River area of Nebraska. The Nature Conservancy hopes to demonstrate that there is economic as well as conservation value in restoring tracts of native grasslands. Photo by Chris Helzer/The Nature Conservancy
A fire team lights a restoration burn on the Dahms Tract, Platte River and Wood River area of Nebraska. The Nature Conservancy hopes to demonstrate that there is economic as well as conservation value in restoring tracts of native grasslands. Photo by Chris Helzer/The Nature Conservancy

Thanks to Marek Smith for sending this in!

Wildfires Consume Funds Flagged for Prevention

This year, the U.S. Forest Service has spent hundreds of millions of dollars fighting wildfires, cutting into funds originally set aside to prevent them. Fire historian Steve Pyne compares the way we manage fires today to how we manage health—focused on emergencies, and not prevention.

Produced by Christopher Intagliata, Senior Producer
Guests

Chris Topik
Former staffer, House Appropriations Committee
Director, “Restoring America’s Forests”
The Nature Conservancy
Arlington, Virginia
Steve Pyne
Fire historian
Arizona State University
Tempe, Arizona

Note: toward the end of the interview, Chris mentions the use of goats to keep firebreaks in the chaparral.

Blog: Early Warning- Shutdown And Transfer- Tuesday Sept 10

Eli Sagor has generously volunteered his time to transfer the blog to Bluehost, which will enable us to use numerous widgets that we can’t use while we are hosted by WordPress. I already set it up so we could get more than 15 comments; we can also choose between different ways of searching so that you will be able to search comments as well as posts. There are more cool widgets available than probably any of us would ever have time to check out.

Anyway, to facilitate this transfer, the blog will have to be down from 11 AM Sept 12 to when Eli finishes..which should be within a day.

Then we will start blogging at the new site. Hopefully without glitches, but any finger-crossing, positive vibrations, prayers to St. Isidore, patron saint of the internet, or other-worldly forms of support would be appreciated.

Rim Fire Op-Ed by Dr. Thomas Bonnicksen

Yosemite-air2-web

This is where the Rim Fire “ran out of fuel”, in Yosemite National Park. Kibbie Lake is near the northeast flank of the fire, where there will be no firelines. Ironically, I was planning a hike to this area, a few weeks ago. (I shot this picture while flying with a forestry buddy, back in 1990. )

“Fire monsters can only devour landscapes if we feed them fuel. More than a century ago, we began protecting forests from fire. We did not know that lightning and Indian fires kept forests open and immune from monster fires. More recently, we adopted an anti-management philosophy that almost completely bans logging and thinning on public lands, even when it is designed to restore historic forests and prevent monster fires. Now, fallen trees and branches clutter the ground and young trees and brush grow so thick that it is difficult to walk through many forests. It is not surprising that the gentle fires of the past have become the fire monsters of the present.

Even so, we keep feeding fuel to the fire monster while blaming global warming, high winds, drought or any other excuse we can think of that keeps us from taking responsibility for the death and destruction these monsters create. We know the climate is warming just as it has done many times for millions of years. We also know that fires burn hotter when the temperature is high, fuel is dry and winds blow strong. Even so, these conditions only contribute to fire intensity. It is a scientific fact that a fire can’t burn without fuel. The more fuel the bigger the fire, regardless of drought or wind.”………. Dr. Thomas Bonnicksen

This article Here is in the local paper, here in Calaveras County, just an hour away from the Rim Fire.

www.facebook.com/LarryHarrellFotoware

Blog Problems

For some reason the widgets (comments are a widget) are missing this morning (or actually further down among the posts if you scroll down). WordPress has support, but I am tied up for the next two days, so I hope to have it fixed by Monday. I apologize.

Federal Judges 1, Forest Scientists 0 (Again)

This was printed this afternoon in Indiana, in “The Republic”: http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/292cede3ef954069b9b0a0ebd7d17a01/OR–Threatened-MurreletsMarbled murrelet critical habitat protections to stay in place for now

By STEVEN DUBOIS

PORTLAND, Oregon — A federal judge has handed the timber industry another defeat in its effort to expand logging on the habitat of a threatened coastal seabird.

U.S. District Court Judge John Bates in Washington D.C. said marbled murrelets will keep their Endangered Species Act listing, and rejected an argument that central California murrelets, which are doing poorly, should not be lumped in with the populations in Oregon, Washington and Northern California.

Bates also ruled old-growth forest habitat will remain protected during a three-year period when the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service re-examines what it considers a flawed 1996 critical habitat designation.

“The court is not in a position to fully assess the seriousness of the deficiencies or to predict whether or how the new designation will differ from the current designation,” Bates said in an opinion Thursday.

The marbled murrelet was listed as threatened in 1992, and habitat protection has meant less logging in the Pacific Northwest. The tiny sea birds venture inland to raise their young and depend on old-growth forests for nesting.

“The timber industry keeps pushing to log this bird’s habitat and is using, I think, increasingly desperate tactics to try to say that we shouldn’t be protecting this bird and its habitat,” said Kristen Boyles, an attorney for Earthjustice. “I think it’s time for timber to figure how to live with this bird.”

The lawsuit was the timber industry’s fourth attempt in the past decade to eliminate protections for the forests that marbled murrelets call home, despite undisputed scientific evidence that murrelets are continuing to disappear from the coasts of Washington, Oregon and California.

The lawsuit was brought by the American Forest Resource Council, Carpenters Industrial Council and Oregon’s Douglas County.

Tom Partin, president of the AFRC, a timber industry group, said he had yet to hear about the ruling. He said the critical habitat portion of ruling was concerning, and that the council continues to believe that food shortages in the ocean are a bigger problem for the birds than limited nesting habitat.

“From our perspective, there has always been enough habitat for the nesting part of it,” Partin said. “It’s been the other aspects of their life cycle that may have the biggest influence on the marbled murrelet.”

Idaho Statesman: Wildfires snare even managed areas

Idaho_Statesman

You can read Rocky Barker’s entire article here. Below are some highlights.

Emmett logger Tim Brown had just completed the White Flat timber sale on the Boise National Forest near Prairie when the Elk Complex Fire burned through in early August, destroying most of the remaining trees.

“That timber sale completely burned up,” said Dave Olson, a Boise National Forest spokesman.

The same happened on state lands nearby.

With extremely dry conditions and 50-mph winds, the fire burned so intensely that even the 6,000 acres of intensively managed state endowment forests burned, said Idaho Department of Lands Director Tom Schultz.

“There is little that land managers can do to prevent that kind of intense fire behavior,” said Schultz, who holds a master’s degree in forestry.

Corral Complex takes on a Direct Attack!

This was just posted earlier today in the Humboldt County North Coast Journal Blogspot: http://www.northcoastjournal.com/Blogthing/archives/2013/09/05/firefighters-shift-to-direct-attack-on-corral-complex

Nearly a thousand firefighters this week are going on the offensive in their battle against the Corral Complex wildfires burning in the Six Rivers National Forest, just east of the Hoopa Valley Indian Reservation. After two weeks of road-clearing, bulldozing and other “indirect” efforts at containment — and with milder weather forecast through Friday — fire crews saw an opportunity to move in.

“On Monday, firefighters began an aggressive attack on the 26 miles of open line along the fire’s edge,” says a Forest Service press release. 

This “direct attack” strategy, which enlists hotshot crews and mass deliver of water by air, “is likely to contain the fire sooner, limit firefighter exposure, increase public safety and reduce final cost,” the press release states. The Corral Complex fires cover more than 12,000 acres and are 67 percent contained.

(For an inside look at the fire battles, see last week’s cover story, “Anatomy of a Fire Fight,” by Emily Hamann.)

Meanwhile, more than 200 more firefighters are battling blazes across extremely difficult terrain in the Forks/Orleans Complex, which includes the Butler Fire and the Salmon Fire near Forks of the Salmon. Those fires cover more than 20,000 acres and are just 55 percent contained.

Here’s the press release on the Corral Complex:

Since Monday, there has been a shift in fire suppression tactics on the Corral Complex. Incident Commander Jeanne Pincha-Tulley said, “We have a chance right now to contain this fire quickly and keep it about 6,000 acres smaller thanks to the excellent work done by California Team 5. The indirect line they put in place gives us a contingency plan if our plan doesn’t work, but if the weather pattern holds, we have a very high probability of success with direct attack.”

During the two previous weeks, firefighters completed indirect fire line to the west and south of the fire by developing a system of cleared roads connected to bulldozer lines which were tied into the north containment line in order to hold the oncoming fire. This indirect strategy was chosen when the fire was moving rapidly in steep terrain under conditions that were too hazardous for direct attack. The next step using the indirect strategy would be firing operations to remove unburned fuel between the indirect line and the main fire.

However, with the indirect line completed, and mild weather forecasted until Friday, California Team 3 recognized a window of opportunity to use an alternative strategy which is likely to contain the fire sooner, limit firefighter exposure, increase public safety and reduce final cost. This alternative direct attack strategy will use hotshot crews, mass-delivery of water by air, and medical response contingency resources to mitigate the risk of working in the complex terrain of the Trinity Alps Wilderness.

On Monday, firefighters began an aggressive attack on the 26 miles of open line along the fire’s edge, while the last four miles of indirect line were still being completed. Type 1 helicopters dropped 250,000 gallons of water along the fire perimeter, reducing the fire’s heat and creating areas that firefighters can now safely enter to construct direct handline or mop up hot spots. Seven hotshot crews hiked into the northwest and west sides of the fire and are camping out near the fireline during this multi-day campaign.

On Tuesday, two airtankers began dropping loads of clean water along the perimeter; particularly on the south side where near vertical terrain continues to prevent the use of handcrews. Aerial water delivery along the fire perimeter is typically done to support crews working on the ground. Intensive use of water along an inaccessible fire perimeter without crews is not typical. In this case, aircraft will systematically deliver mass-loads of water along the perimeter, targeting pockets of heat, burning snags, and other areas of concern. Both water drops to support handcrews and spot-cooling along the perimeter are being used on the Corral Complex.
All firefighting strategies involve some level of risk which must be carefully weighed with risk mitigations and benefits.

The risks and mitigations associated with California Team 3’s current plan of direct attack are:

• The use of fixed winged aircraft and helicopters increases exposure to aircraft hazards, but is mitigated through the short duration of use, limiting pilot flight hours, and other aspects of the aviation safety plan.

• Trace amounts of retardant in airtankers could impact sensitive aquatic species, but is mitigated by doing initial drops on the ridge tops to avoid riparian areas and human drinking water supplies. Retardant is not being used in the wilderness, or on sensitive watersheds or cultural resources in the fire area.

• Use of handcrews in steep terrain is mitigated by using highly experienced hotshot crews with short term exposure, cooling the fire’s perimeter with mass-delivery of water, and providing support with Rapid Extraction Modules and a hoist capable helicopter for emergency medical response.

• A change in weather to hot dry conditions with a possible increase in wind or fire behavior, particularly an offshore east wind event which is more frequent in Northern California at this time of year, is mitigated by the contingency plan of using the indirect line and firing operations to contain the fire.

The benefits associated with California Team 3’s current plan of direct attack are:
• Fire containment will be achieved more quickly.

• A shorter duration fire will reduce firefighters exposure to risks associated with heat, smoke, hazardous mountain roads, snags, fatigue, and steep terrain.

• Smoke impacts to communities will be reduced.

• Fire suppression costs will be reduced.

• The number of acres burned will be reduced.

• Fire repair and rehabilitation costs will be reduced.

• Using water without retardant will allow aerial attack both in drainages and on ridges, limiting fire spread from rolling burned material which has been a major contributor to fire growth.

• Negative impacts to local traffic caused by fire equipment on the roads will be reduced.

• Use of water rather than fire retardant will eliminate ecological concerns in riparian areas and protect wilderness values.

• Use of water rather than fire retardant will protect the drinking water supply for the Hoopa Valley community.

• Use of water rather than fire retardant will ensure effective firing operations if tactics must be changed in response to weather, since fire retardant makes it more difficult for vegetation to burn.