The Fires We Light—and the Acres We Don’t Count
Dana Tibbitts | National Wildfire Alliance
Federal agencies deliberately ignite vast areas of forest in the name of wildfire suppression. A major National Wildfire Alliance investigation exposes how these fires escape separate acreage accounting—and the environmental consequences we still cannot measure.
The federal government is setting fires inside America’s wildfires.
Thousands of acres are deliberately ignited by firefighters using drip torches, helicopters, and drones. These intentional burns become part of the nation’s official wildfire acreage totals, without a separate national accounting of how much land firefighters themselves burned.
This is established federal firefighting practice, known as suppression firing. The rationale is familiar: Fight fire with fire. Burn the fuel ahead of an advancing wildfire, and the approaching flames may have nowhere left to go.
But what happens when the fire deliberately set to stop a wildfire consumes thousands of additional acres? What happens to the old-growth forests, wildlife habitat, soils, and watersheds in its path? And who determines whether the operation saved the land—or unnecessarily burned more of it?
At the heart of this investigation is a question federal wildfire agencies have never adequately answered:
How much of the land burned in America’s wildfires was consumed by the advancing fire—and how much was deliberately burned in the name of stopping it?
That question drives a major September 2026 investigation by Frank Carroll, Vice President of the National Wildfire Alliance (NWA), titled Suppression Firing: Counting the Acres Burned on Purpose.
Federal agencies possess increasingly sophisticated technology to ignite fire across enormous landscapes, yet lack a corresponding national system to account for the acreage and consequences of those operations.
The findings raise fundamental questions about wildfire statistics on which national policy, scientific research, and billions in public spending depend.
The Acres That Disappear Into The Statistics
The magnitude of the practice may surprise Americans who assume firefighters are primarily extinguishing fires, not deliberately setting new ones.
An Australian study of large wildfires in Victoria found suppression firing accounted for an average of 29 percent of the final burned area on fires where the operations could be mapped. On one fire, intentional ignition accounted for an extraordinary 94 percent.
These findings cannot be extrapolated to American wildfires. But they demonstrate how much deliberate burning can contribute to what ultimately appears on official maps as wildfire damage.
How much of America’s reported wildfire acreage results from the same practice?
Nobody knows.
Carroll examined federal National Incident Feature Service archives for 2022 through 2025. Among more than 106,000 distinct completed fireline features, only 1,128 were identified as completed burnouts.
In 2024, just 105 of 988 incidents with mapped firelines included any mapped burnout. In 2025, only 109 of 1,865 did.
These sparse records contrast sharply with federal firefighting doctrine, which describes backfiring as customary during indirect attack.
Worse, burnouts are generally mapped as lines, not areas. Almost none contain the width measurements needed to calculate acreage.
What appears to be a single wildfire footprint may actually combine a naturally or accidentally ignited wildfire with extensive deliberate government ignition operations.
Those are different activities. America’s national wildfire accounting does not adequately distinguish them.
A New Age Of Aerial Ignition
Meanwhile, the technology for lighting fires is advancing rapidly.
Helicopters dispense incendiary spheres or spray burning gelled gasoline across vegetation. Drones deliver hundreds of ignition devices in precisely spaced patterns, including at night and in dangerous terrain.
These tools offer genuine safety advantages, reducing dangerous helicopter missions and exposure for ground crews. But their expanding use demands scrutiny.
According to Forest Service figures examined by NWA, drone ignition treated 128,913 acres in fiscal 2023 and 188,986 acres in fiscal 2024—a 47 percent increase.
The number of incendiary spheres dropped more than doubled, from 322,246 to 733,115.
Those acreage figures do not separately identify wildfire suppression firing versus prescribed burning—the very distinction Carroll’s investigation seeks to establish.
The agencies can count aircraft hours, ignition devices, and acres treated by drones. Yet they do not publish comprehensive figures identifying how much intentional fire is added to active wildfire perimeters.
We have developed remarkable precision in delivering fire without demanding comparable precision in measuring its consequences.
One Fire, Two Sets Of Rules
Perhaps the most revealing finding involves the dramatically different oversight requirements governing intentional fire.
A prescribed burn requires an approved written plan, formal authorization, weather and smoke considerations, contingency procedures, environmental compliance, and monitoring.
But introduce essentially the same fire during an active wildfire, and the rules change.
Federal firing-operations curriculum permits a dynamic, informal plan during wildfire suppression. Decisions to conduct burnouts may be made at the single-resource-boss level.
There is no equivalent national requirement to map deliberately burned acreage, systematically measure ecological effects, or provide prescribed-fire-level documentation.
Consider the implications.
The same forest. The same fuel. The same firefighter. The same ignition device.
Yet profoundly different standards of planning, oversight, and accountability.
Smoke generated by intentional firing becomes part of the wildfire smoke burden without separate attribution. Resource protection relies heavily on incident-level judgment. An escaped burnout does not automatically generate the incident record and mandatory review associated with an escaped prescribed fire.
This is a structural blind spot in the oversight of large-scale government ignition.
The Ecological Cost No One Can Measure
The unanswered questions extend far beyond acreage.
Wildfires do not necessarily consume everything within their boundaries. Terrain, weather, moisture, and fuel conditions can leave surviving vegetation—natural refuges that shelter wildlife, preserve seed sources, and help forests recover.
Suppression firing deliberately consumes fuel between an advancing fire and a containment line. Depending on its execution, it may burn areas the wildfire would otherwise have spared.
Research establishes that ignition patterns affect flame length, spread rate, heat exposure, and combustion duration. These factors influence soils, roots, vegetation, and the survival of large, old trees.
Yet Carroll found no controlled field study directly comparing fuel consumption inside mapped wildfire burnouts with comparable free-spreading fire on the same incident. Nor does the national emissions inventory identify how much smoke originates from deliberate firefighter ignition.
Some firing operations have been associated with reduced measured fire severity. But those findings do not resolve what happens beneath the canopy, where prolonged heating can consume organic layers and damage roots.
How much surviving habitat is lost? How much smoke is deliberately generated? How much watershed degradation, soil damage, or delayed tree mortality results? And how often does the acreage burned actually improve containment?
Without distinguishing the deliberately ignited fire from the advancing wildfire, the full costs and benefits cannot be reliably established.
Count The Fire We Light
NWA’s investigation does not argue that all suppression firing should cease. It recognizes legitimate tactical and safety purposes. Nor does it claim every deliberately burned acre would otherwise have escaped the wildfire.
Instead, it demands something fundamental.
Count the acres deliberately burned. Record when, where, and why ignition occurs. Preserve operational decisions. Distinguish suppression firing from prescribed burning and free-spreading wildfire. Measure ecological consequences.
Much of the necessary technology already exists.
Annual wildfire acreage totals inform national policy, management evaluations, research, and public expenditures. Yet if an unknown share of those acres was intentionally ignited by the agencies managing the fires, the statistics are missing a critical part of the story.
The National Wildfire Alliance has placed an essential question before the American public:
How much of the land burned in America’s wildfires was consumed by the advancing fire—and how much was deliberately burned in the name of stopping it?
Until agencies answer, the public cannot fully assess decisions being made in the name of wildfire suppression.
The fires are being lit. The acres are being burned. The consequences are real, even where their extent remains unknown.
The public deserves to know not merely how many acres burned, but who set them burning, why, and what those decisions accomplished.
Because when we fight fire with fire, we must also account for the fire we fight with.
Based on Frank Carroll’s September 21, 2026 research report, “Suppression Firing: Counting the Acres Burned on Purpose,” prepared for the National Wildfire Alliance — Research for Transparency in Government.
National Wildfire Alliance | nationalwildfirealliance.org
Myself and numerous forest stakeholders have asked those same questions – both privately and at public meetings – after the 2020 August Complex Fire. Not sure we ever got an answer.
Yes on more information.. the ecological questions sound like a proposal for JFSP… where are our fire ecologists on this? Maybe research bucks aren’t in the right buckets..?
So, what if 30% of a wildfire is backfiring? What does that number mean beyond the talking point? Some landscapes are really complicated and others are not. What if the only safe control point is far away from the wildfire and there’s a red flag in the forecast and it’s heading that way? Would managers be judged based on the percent of backfire vs. wildfire in that situation? The location of backfiring vs. proximity of the wildfire when it’s fired, along with fire weather and fuel moisture, seem like some of the most important things for a post-op analysis. Having a post-op analysis of where and why backfiring was implemented seems like a great thing.
Personally, I don’t think acres or percent backfired are all that meaningful. They don’t tell us anything about how things should have been done differently. If it’s not the smallest percent possible, are folks going to suggest that they should have done NEPA? I don’t think wildfire response should be limited to the smallest area possible for backfiring, as that does not allow for risk to be factored into the equation. This all feels a lot like folks trying to limit the use of backfiring to the smallest area possible, which I do not believe is a safe, thoughtful, or effective way to manage wildfire.
Drones have way better results than the old school methods. Drones can put fire into areas that would be much too dangerous for people, so rather than letting a backing fire rip from the bottom of a slope, drones can work fire down from the top without risking lives and have way better fire severity outcomes.
A. It might matter to different people. For example, if backfiring wasn’t used as much in the past, researchers who use total acres burned to study climate change will be missing something.
I don’t think “people should have done NEPA” but I think that the decision should be documented. Clearly someone was thinking, from that road, that ridge, and not that other one, because… In fact, having PODs lined out previously in some kind of NEPA document (fire plan amendment) might help with that.
As to drones, I think that that is an important point, if firefighter safety is not a concern because.. drones.. then won’t it be clearer exactly why “this ridge” and not “that ridge”? It seems to me that with the level of wildfire tech out there, (Tech Summit this week), documenting human decisions and rationales will be helpful for AI and new human entrants on the scene to learn from.
I’m not against collecting such data, but how would one interpret such data? How much acreage would the fire have burned without burnout operations? Perhaps the fire would have burned even more acreage and human infrastructure without the burnout area. How is that determined and interpreted? How are differences in suppression fire impacts from wildfire impacts determined when impacts can vary based on fuel density, topography and weather conditions? Is the assumption that the wildfire burning a mile away would burn exactly the same way when it reached the area that was burned out?
I foresee the proposed data being used to push agendas without adding all the qualifiers about what can be and cannot be legitimately concluded by the data. But that, of course, would be nothing new.
Mike, if past is prologue, collecting data will be … fraught with disagreements over how to collect it, as well as what it means, and will be used on whatever side to push whatever agenda.
That’s why I think FIA is a good model.. it brings in people from all constituencies to decide what data is collected and how. I’ve been at users’ meetings with intense discussions about what outsiders might see as minutiae, but that’s 10x the peer review an ordinary scientific paper’s methods would get. The FS knows how to do this and could design a process to acquire the information. In fact, I would think the USWFS would be asking the question (and the Fire Intelligence Center when it gets going).. what data do we need to collect? what do stakeholders and the industry itself need? how can we make sure it’s collected the same way by counties, states, Tribes and others?
I think it is an important issue, and questions of how the data are collected and interpreted are also important. It is very difficult to draw informed conclusions without knowledge of what was considered at each specific time and place, none of which are documented. My concern is that protecting old forests are not factored into these decisions to the degree they should be given their rarity and importance. We hear over and over that protecting people and property are the values at risk. Even in the recent interview with Chief Fennessy he kept emphasizing that we need a professional firefighting service to protect life and property. How about protecting life, property and old forests? None of this can be evaluated though when there is no record.
It is analogous to bombing an entire city just to kill a few terrorists.
Or is it more like.. “it’s hard to define terrorists” “so we can’t actually count them” and “if we did count them we might be tempted to bomb them, so best not to know.”