Trees Burn Up: Even Ones Enrolled in Carbon Offset Programs

I was never a fan of forest carbon offsets.  Too much white collar work (designing, auditing, etc.) and too many opportunities for grift.   And it was always obvious that wildfires would not respect lines drawn on maps.

So it’s not surprising that we have this story on the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs

A forest carbon sequestration project that once generated millions of dollars for the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs has ended after wildfire tore through more than half of the enrolled acreage, tribal officials say. The project, launched in 2015 under California’s cap-and-trade program, protected roughly 22,000 to 24,000 acres of tribal forest east of Mount Jefferson. Over several years, it brought in about $25 million through the sale of carbon offset credits, tribal leaders previously said. But the 2020 Lionshead Fire burned much of the project area — killing entire sections of forest and eliminating much of the stored carbon that underpinned the agreement.

Warm Springs natural resources manager Austin Smith described what occurred as a “stand-replacement” fire, a high-intensity fire that kills the mature overstory trees in a forest, initiating a restart in the growth cycle. By the time it was extinguished, the fire had scorched more than 200,000 acres on and around the Warm Springs Reservation. “It was enough of the carbon project that burned up that it triggered conditions for the Tribes to exit out of that agreement,” Smith said in a recent interview.

Under the terms of the carbon contract, large-scale carbon loss made the project no longer feasible to maintain. After evaluating and measuring the burned acreage, the Tribes determined the land could no longer meet sequestration requirements for the market, Smith said. The affected ground included “conditional use” forestland — areas the Tribes had opted not to log in favor of conservation and carbon revenue. Smith, who served on the Lionshead Fire as a resource adviser and type-two firefighter, said the fire burned especially hot in places that had not been treated or actively managed. “It burned, and it burned hot because we weren’t able to get in there and treat it and manage it,” Smith said.

So perhaps more carbon was lost in areas managed for carbon sequestration?  Seems like a problem.

The loss ended what had been, for several years, one of the largest revenue sources for the Tribes. Payments were made through the California Air Resources Board in multiple tranches, with additional annual residual payments. Some funds were reinvested in forest thinning and health projects, as well as community development and business ventures. Smith said the experience has reshaped how the Tribe think about forest management and carbon markets. “We’re learning that we can’t just leave it alone,” he said. “When wildfire happens, it’s going to burn.” Rather than focus on short-term revenue, Smith said the Tribes are taking a long view, rooted in intergenerational stewardship. That could include pursuing future carbon market projects in different areas — potentially rotating acreage while incorporating more active management to reduce wildfire risk. Other tribes, including the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation in Washington, have explored similar strategies. “We’re thinking seven generations ahead,” he said. “We’re not thinking of the now and tomorrow and what our bank accounts look like. We’re thinking about setting up our grandkids’ grandkids for the benefit of the resource.”

Because I’m not a fan of the process (why doesn’t California spend the buck on its own forests if it thinks it’s such a great idea?), there are parts that I haven’t learned about and don’t understand.

I’d appreciate any help from those more knowledgeable.

If CARB paid $x per year for whatever change in management, and they must  assume that y amount of carbon would grow extra each year, and they have been paying for z years.  But if a fire wipes out all the extra carbon, does the Tribe have to give the money back for all  ( the total $x times z times y)  that CARB paid for? Or does CARB just write off the past and stop funding the year after the fire?